Tune In Switched On

The boom in energy-hungry data centers in the US has led to a revival of interest in nuclear power. Small modular reactors, or SMRs, are often held up as the way forward, but the technology remains in development, which has led some big tech firms – or ‘hyperscalers’ – to explore other pathways for using nuclear power. One alternative is restarting some of the 11 nuclear facilities that have been shut in the US in the last 15 years, an option made all the more attractive given the regulatory hurdles, cost concerns and schedule overruns that tend to plague new nuclear projects. On today’s show, Tom is joined by Chris Gadomski, BloombergNEF’s lead nuclear analyst, to discuss key findings from his report “Hyperscalers’ Energy Appetite Boosts Nuclear Prospects”.

The world is focused on net zero. Yet some companies, like Australian mining giant Fortescue, have set their sights higher, and are now aiming for ‘real zero’. On today’s show, we bring you an interview from the recent BNEF Summit Shanghai, where Fortescue Founder and Executive Chairman Andrew Forrest sat down with Leonard Quong, BNEF’s Head of Australia Research, to talk about green hydrogen, green iron ore, and why real zero is good for people, the planet and the bottom line.

Emerging markets have big plans when it comes to the energy transition. Today, 95% of developing economies have a renewable energy target in place, and many of them are seeing massive growth in solar and other renewable power technologies. Yet this clean power revolution won’t come cheap. While EMDEs attracted more than $100 billion for clean energy development last year, that’s a drop in the bucket of what it’ll take to reach net zero, and many markets are racing to implement the policy and infrastructure needed to attract many billions more. On today’s show, BloombergNEF researchers Sofia Maia and Ana Paula Fonseca Teixeira present the newest edition of Climatescope, a public BNEF resource that evaluates and ranks emerging markets’ readiness to utilize energy transition investment. Climatescope 2024 can be found in full at global-climatescope.org.

Climate-tech funding is falling precipitously. During the third quarter of 2024, worldwide investment in the sector reached just $10.3 billion, a far cry from the $22.6 billion raised in the third quarter of 2023 and the $40.9 billion seen in 3Q 2022. These dramatic declines have been led in part by manufacturing overcapacity in China, where a collapse in market funding has allowed India to supersede China for the first time in BloombergNEF’s climate-tech rankings. With protectionism on the rise, questions have also arisen about how tariffs will impact equity funding moving forward, but where some see barriers, others see opportunities. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Mark Daly, BloombergNEF’s Head of Technology and Innovation, to discuss key findings from the recent report “Investment Radar 3Q 2024: Funding Drop Again”.

“It looks like coal weather today,” is an unlikely forecast, but it shouldn’t be. Coal production and consumption are linked to weather, and the return of a La Niña weather cycle has the potential to extend the lifespan of coal power assets and influence fuel switching. While peak coal demand is close, near-term drivers point to stagnation rather than a rapid decline. Developed economies are shutting thermal power assets at scale, but China is responsible for 56% of global coal consumption and continues to import and stockpile coal in vast quantities. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Fauziah Marzuki, BloombergNEF’s Global Head of Gas Markets, alongside Yumi Kim, Power Markets Associate, to discuss key findings from their recent report Coal Outlook: Hot and Cold to 2050.

Wind is key to tripling global clean energy capacity by 2030, but in recent years both onshore and offshore additions have been blowing cold. The landscape improves as we look ahead to 2030, when BloombergNEF expects annual installations of wind to have risen by a massive 70%. China, which is currently responsible for over a half of all global wind additions, is leading the charge. But now that its massive turbine manufacturing base is looking outside its borders, the picture for equipment exports is about to be shaken up. On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees speaks with BNEF’s head of Wind Research, Oliver Metcalfe, about key findings from three recent reports: Unlocking Investment to Triple Renewables by 2030, 3Q 2024 Wind Turbine Order Dataset: Volume Surges, and Floating Offshore Wind: Big Potential But Big Price Tag. Together they discuss what it’ll take for wind to grow at the pace required to meet net-zero goals, the threat to western turbine manufacturers posed by rising Chinese exports, and the impact floating wind could have on the offshore market.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” This proverb is just as apt if you swap out “trees” for “grid investment.” Some $326 billion flowed into the world’s power grids in 2023, up 7% from the year before. Yet while investment may be increasing overall, only a few markets align with a net-zero pathway. On today's show, co-hosts Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees are joined by Felicia Aminoff from BNEF’s Grids and Utilities team. They discuss the growing power demand from new data centers, strategies for protecting the grid from extreme weather events, and how grid authorities are addressing a backlog of renewable energy projects waiting for a connection. This episode draws upon BNEF research found in the 2024 Power Grid Investment Outlook and the New Energy Outlook 2024: Grids.

Tariffs and subsidies loom large in the energy transition. The US Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, has been of global importance, changing trade relationships and causing some governments to rethink their domestic policies. The European Union responded by introducing the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), although it has fewer subsidies and trade barriers than its transatlantic counterpart. On today’s show, Dana speaks with Antoine Vagneur-Jones and Matthew Hales from BNEF’s Trade and Supply Chains team. As they discuss key findings from the report US Clean-Tech Industrial Policy Leaves EU Behind – For Now, they look at the risks the IRA faces in the upcoming US election, the relative effectiveness of US and EU tariffs, and whether western markets can realistically expect to challenge Chinese manufacturers on cost competitiveness.

Heavy transport is at a crossroads. There are many possible paths for decarbonizing aviation, maritime shipping and long-haul trucking, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), ammonia, methanol and synthetic fuels. Now that companies are working to secure feedstocks, governments are writing clean-fuel policies, and investors are looking for new fuels to back, will these sectors coalesce around a single low-carbon pathway? Or will a cornucopia of options be the way of the future? On today’s episode, Colin McKerracher, BloombergNEF’s Head of Transport and Energy Storage, moderates a discussion at the BNEF Summit London on the future of clean fuels in heavy transport. He is joined by panelists Freya Burton, Chief Sustainability Officer at LanzaTech; Chris Johnson, Chief Commercial Officer at C2X; and Lara Naqushbandi, Chief Executive Officer at ETFuels. Together, they discuss which clean fuels are seeing the greatest uptake, what they’d most like to see from government policy, and how to stimulate investor activity across the sector at large.

This month, 196 parties are converging in Cali, Colombia for the 16th United Nations Conference on Biological Diversity (COP16). Less famous but no less significant than its climate-focused sibling (which will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, a few weeks later), COP16 offers a chance to negotiate and assess strategies for protecting global biodiversity, with a focus on implementing the targets agreed upon at COP15 in Montreal two years ago. That’s critical, because as one of today’s guests points out, 100% of global economic activity is based to some degree on nature. To preview COP16, Dana is joined by Hugh Bromley, BNEF’s Head of Food, Agriculture and Nature, and team member Alistair Purdie. Together they discuss BNEF’s outlook for this meeting, published in the research note Expectations for Biodiversity COP16: Cali Fauna Dreamin'.They also discuss the funding gap for the Global Biodiversity Framework, the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans, and the contentious issue of profiting from genetic data.

Lithium-ion batteries, hydrogen electrolyzers and transmission lines all require one fundamental ingredient: metals. In other words, there can be no energy transition without massive metal supplies. Lithium demand jumps 17-fold by 2050 in BloombergNEF’s Net Zero Scenario. Manganese demand jumps 15-fold, and copper needs rise 4.5-fold against 2023 levels. Yet as demand skyrockets, supply growth is facing headwinds as low metals prices jeopardize important capacity additions. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Rosemary Katz and Kwasi Ampofo from BNEF’s metals and mining team to discuss the 2024 Transition Metals Outlook. Their conversation focuses on the 10 metals critical to the energy transition, the link between cooling electric vehicle demand and falling metals prices, and whether the world has enough known metals reserves to meet 2050 net-zero targets.

Innovative climate tech is a key weapon in the battle to halt global warming, but finding the most effective new technologies isn’t easy. Enter the BloombergNEF Pioneers. This annual award program identifies new tools for tackling three critical challenges in the transition to a low-carbon economy. This year’s awards focused on relieving bottlenecks in the deployment of clean power, decarbonizing the construction and operation of buildings, and creating the next generation of net-zero fuels. They also highlighted an array of ‘wildcard’ entries that were too compelling to ignore. On today’s show, Dana is joined by guest host Benjamin Kafri, Co-Chair of BNEF Pioneers, to interview two winners from the net-zero fuels challenge, XFuel and CoverCress, and wildcard winner NatureMetrics. More information regarding the upcoming 2025 BNEF Pioneers program, including the three key challenges and submission deadlines, can be found at www.about.bnef.com/bnefpioneers/.

Agriculture is responsible for almost a third of global emissions. It’s also a leading driver of deforestation, water stress and plastic waste generation, and pressure is mounting on food companies to address their climate and nature impacts. The value chain that underpins the sector, however, is vast, involving millions of individuals and tens of thousands of companies, which makes identifying and addressing areas of concern a huge challenge. On today’s show, Dana Perkins hosts two analysts from BNEF’s Food, Agriculture and Nature team, Helen Ramsbottom and Alistair Purdie. Together they discuss the structure of the agri-food system, the challenges faced by large food companies when it comes to quantifying their true environmental footprint, the rising field of regenerative agriculture, and whether the lack of existing mandates is harming its adoption.

Methane might be the world’s simplest hydrocarbon, but its immense global warming potential makes it a complex problem in the battle to halt climate change. It’s also invisible to the human eye, which has made catching the methane plumes leaking from oil and gas assets a challenge. That’s now changing, as a growing network of satellites offers more accurate evidence of methane leaks around the globe. On today’s show, Dana Perkins speaks with Maria-Olivia Torcea from BNEF’s Oil Team. They discuss the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, new methods of detecting methane, and how data is being used by those responsible for leaks.

Extending energy access to the world’s most populous nation will be a Herculean task. To do it while also achieving its 2030 clean energy goals, India must increase its wind and solar capacity installations fourfold, highlighting just how much of a feat this energy transition will be. On today’s episode, Rohit Gadre, a BloombergNEF Specialist, moderates a discussion at the BNEF Summit New Delhi on what it will take to realize India’s clean energy revolution. He is joined by panelists Giorgio Fortunato, Head of Clean Energy and Power in Asia Pacific for Google; Kavita Saha, Managing Director, Head of Infrastructure and Sustainable Energies, India for CPP Investments; Amit Singh, Chief Executive Officer, Adani Green Energy; and Gurdeep Singh, Chairman and Managing Director, NTPC Limited. Together they discuss the ongoing issue of underperforming renewable energy assets, the role of nuclear power in India’s future and why AI’s energy demand means there is no time to waste. This episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New Delhi.

International oil companies have been divesting assets at a surprising rate. Between 2015 and 2023, nine of the world’s largest IOCs have sold a total of $290 billion of assets, with upstream oil assets accounting for half of the divestment deals. Yet this trend toward ditching dirty assets may now be changing, as divestment proceeds dropped 15% last year. On today’s show, co-hosts Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees are joined by David Doherty, BloombergNEF’s Head of Oil and Renewable Fuels Research, to discuss the key factors that inform these decisions. As they consider the investment and divestment strategies that major oil and gas companies are now pursuing, they also discuss how public and investor pressure to decarbonize is impacting the sector, how a spike in energy prices in 2022 changed the calculus, and why simply selling dirty assets won’t make for a cleaner world. This episode draws on BNEF research, including the note “Oil and Gas Divestment Trends 2023: Divestment Slowed”.

Carbon capture is on a roller coaster these days. Projects in the sector attracted more than $11 billion in 2023, almost double the investment figure from the year before, only to see growth stall in the first half of 2024. Fortunately, carbon removal technology reaches beyond the traditional ‘CCS’ model of carbon capture and storage (or ‘CCUS’ when a utilization component is involved). Coming from a small base, direct air capture, or DAC, is gaining momentum, and new technologies such as direct ocean removal are proving to be hubs of innovation. On today’s show, Brenna Casey, a member of BloombergNEF’s Sustainable Materials team, joins Dana to discuss new directions in carbon sequestration, how tax credits and other policies are shaping CCS projects around the globe, and what whales have to do with capturing carbon. The episode draws on BNEF research including “CCUS Market Outlook 1H 2024: Trough of Disillusionment” and “Direct Air Capture’s Technology Battle to Heat Up in 2030s”.

A wave of new liquefied natural gas projects are due to be commissioned by the end of the decade. Yet a sharp increase in supply runs the risk of creating a glut, and with the rise of this transportable commodity, what impacts one market could have a ripple effect around the world. Today’s show addresses the interplay between global and regional gas markets, with co-hosts Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees joined by Fauziah Marzuki, Global Head of Gas Markets at BNEF. Together, they discuss the role of the US and China in how LNG moves around the globe, how shifting policies and net-zero goals are impacting the outlook for natural gas, and the ‘shadow fleet’ that recently departed sanctioned LNG terminals in Russia. The show draws upon BNEF research including Global LNG Market Outlook 2030: Focus on Supply Risks and Global LNG Supply Outlook 2030: Second US Wave Incoming.

Using electricity seems so simple: You flip a switch, and the light turns on. Yet behind that simple action is a sprawling and complex system of supply, demand and free-market economics. Today’s show dives into power markets. What are they and what role do they play in increasing the efficiency of power systems? Tom Rowlands-Rees, BNEF’s Global Head of Power Markets, hosts Helen Kou, Head of US Power, and Ian Berryman, Head of Energy Systems Modeling, to talk about capacity markets, vertically integrated utilities, power purchase agreements, and how changes to market design could help power markets better incorporate renewable energy.

What do biofuels, renewable power, and the food on your plate have in common? They all need land, and lots of it. While the technologies required to reach a net-zero future are expanding alongside rising energy demand, growing populations and higher living standards could require roughly a fifth more land be cultivated for agriculture by mid-century. Of the available land on Earth, decisions must be made regarding whether to devote it to agriculture, biofuels, bioplastics, power generation, battery metals or nature conservation. The challenge is profound, yet key solutions are emerging, including co-location and innovations to improve energy output and agricultural yields. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Hugh Bromley, BNEF’s Head of Food, Agriculture and Nature, and Kostas Pegios, who specializes in modeling at BNEF. Together they discuss the vast quantity of land required for the energy transition, which renewable energy technologies can be co-located with existing agriculture, and the competition between food crops and biofuels for suitable land.