Tune In Switched On

Tariffs and subsidies loom large in the energy transition. The US Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, has been of global importance, changing trade relationships and causing some governments to rethink their domestic policies. The European Union responded by introducing the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), although it has fewer subsidies and trade barriers than its transatlantic counterpart. On today’s show, Dana speaks with Antoine Vagneur-Jones and Matthew Hales from BNEF’s Trade and Supply Chains team. As they discuss key findings from the report US Clean-Tech Industrial Policy Leaves EU Behind – For Now, they look at the risks the IRA faces in the upcoming US election, the relative effectiveness of US and EU tariffs, and whether western markets can realistically expect to challenge Chinese manufacturers on cost competitiveness.

Heavy transport is at a crossroads. There are many possible paths for decarbonizing aviation, maritime shipping and long-haul trucking, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), ammonia, methanol and synthetic fuels. Now that companies are working to secure feedstocks, governments are writing clean-fuel policies, and investors are looking for new fuels to back, will these sectors coalesce around a single low-carbon pathway? Or will a cornucopia of options be the way of the future? On today’s episode, Colin McKerracher, BloombergNEF’s Head of Transport and Energy Storage, moderates a discussion at the BNEF Summit London on the future of clean fuels in heavy transport. He is joined by panelists Freya Burton, Chief Sustainability Officer at LanzaTech; Chris Johnson, Chief Commercial Officer at C2X; and Lara Naqushbandi, Chief Executive Officer at ETFuels. Together, they discuss which clean fuels are seeing the greatest uptake, what they’d most like to see from government policy, and how to stimulate investor activity across the sector at large.

This month, 196 parties are converging in Cali, Colombia for the 16th United Nations Conference on Biological Diversity (COP16). Less famous but no less significant than its climate-focused sibling (which will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, a few weeks later), COP16 offers a chance to negotiate and assess strategies for protecting global biodiversity, with a focus on implementing the targets agreed upon at COP15 in Montreal two years ago. That’s critical, because as one of today’s guests points out, 100% of global economic activity is based to some degree on nature. To preview COP16, Dana is joined by Hugh Bromley, BNEF’s Head of Food, Agriculture and Nature, and team member Alistair Purdie. Together they discuss BNEF’s outlook for this meeting, published in the research note Expectations for Biodiversity COP16: Cali Fauna Dreamin'.They also discuss the funding gap for the Global Biodiversity Framework, the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans, and the contentious issue of profiting from genetic data.

Lithium-ion batteries, hydrogen electrolyzers and transmission lines all require one fundamental ingredient: metals. In other words, there can be no energy transition without massive metal supplies. Lithium demand jumps 17-fold by 2050 in BloombergNEF’s Net Zero Scenario. Manganese demand jumps 15-fold, and copper needs rise 4.5-fold against 2023 levels. Yet as demand skyrockets, supply growth is facing headwinds as low metals prices jeopardize important capacity additions. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Rosemary Katz and Kwasi Ampofo from BNEF’s metals and mining team to discuss the 2024 Transition Metals Outlook. Their conversation focuses on the 10 metals critical to the energy transition, the link between cooling electric vehicle demand and falling metals prices, and whether the world has enough known metals reserves to meet 2050 net-zero targets.

Innovative climate tech is a key weapon in the battle to halt global warming, but finding the most effective new technologies isn’t easy. Enter the BloombergNEF Pioneers. This annual award program identifies new tools for tackling three critical challenges in the transition to a low-carbon economy. This year’s awards focused on relieving bottlenecks in the deployment of clean power, decarbonizing the construction and operation of buildings, and creating the next generation of net-zero fuels. They also highlighted an array of ‘wildcard’ entries that were too compelling to ignore. On today’s show, Dana is joined by guest host Benjamin Kafri, Co-Chair of BNEF Pioneers, to interview two winners from the net-zero fuels challenge, XFuel and CoverCress, and wildcard winner NatureMetrics. More information regarding the upcoming 2025 BNEF Pioneers program, including the three key challenges and submission deadlines, can be found at www.about.bnef.com/bnefpioneers/.

Agriculture is responsible for almost a third of global emissions. It’s also a leading driver of deforestation, water stress and plastic waste generation, and pressure is mounting on food companies to address their climate and nature impacts. The value chain that underpins the sector, however, is vast, involving millions of individuals and tens of thousands of companies, which makes identifying and addressing areas of concern a huge challenge. On today’s show, Dana Perkins hosts two analysts from BNEF’s Food, Agriculture and Nature team, Helen Ramsbottom and Alistair Purdie. Together they discuss the structure of the agri-food system, the challenges faced by large food companies when it comes to quantifying their true environmental footprint, the rising field of regenerative agriculture, and whether the lack of existing mandates is harming its adoption.

Methane might be the world’s simplest hydrocarbon, but its immense global warming potential makes it a complex problem in the battle to halt climate change. It’s also invisible to the human eye, which has made catching the methane plumes leaking from oil and gas assets a challenge. That’s now changing, as a growing network of satellites offers more accurate evidence of methane leaks around the globe. On today’s show, Dana Perkins speaks with Maria-Olivia Torcea from BNEF’s Oil Team. They discuss the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, new methods of detecting methane, and how data is being used by those responsible for leaks.

Extending energy access to the world’s most populous nation will be a Herculean task. To do it while also achieving its 2030 clean energy goals, India must increase its wind and solar capacity installations fourfold, highlighting just how much of a feat this energy transition will be. On today’s episode, Rohit Gadre, a BloombergNEF Specialist, moderates a discussion at the BNEF Summit New Delhi on what it will take to realize India’s clean energy revolution. He is joined by panelists Giorgio Fortunato, Head of Clean Energy and Power in Asia Pacific for Google; Kavita Saha, Managing Director, Head of Infrastructure and Sustainable Energies, India for CPP Investments; Amit Singh, Chief Executive Officer, Adani Green Energy; and Gurdeep Singh, Chairman and Managing Director, NTPC Limited. Together they discuss the ongoing issue of underperforming renewable energy assets, the role of nuclear power in India’s future and why AI’s energy demand means there is no time to waste. This episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New Delhi.

International oil companies have been divesting assets at a surprising rate. Between 2015 and 2023, nine of the world’s largest IOCs have sold a total of $290 billion of assets, with upstream oil assets accounting for half of the divestment deals. Yet this trend toward ditching dirty assets may now be changing, as divestment proceeds dropped 15% last year. On today’s show, co-hosts Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees are joined by David Doherty, BloombergNEF’s Head of Oil and Renewable Fuels Research, to discuss the key factors that inform these decisions. As they consider the investment and divestment strategies that major oil and gas companies are now pursuing, they also discuss how public and investor pressure to decarbonize is impacting the sector, how a spike in energy prices in 2022 changed the calculus, and why simply selling dirty assets won’t make for a cleaner world. This episode draws on BNEF research, including the note “Oil and Gas Divestment Trends 2023: Divestment Slowed”.

Carbon capture is on a roller coaster these days. Projects in the sector attracted more than $11 billion in 2023, almost double the investment figure from the year before, only to see growth stall in the first half of 2024. Fortunately, carbon removal technology reaches beyond the traditional ‘CCS’ model of carbon capture and storage (or ‘CCUS’ when a utilization component is involved). Coming from a small base, direct air capture, or DAC, is gaining momentum, and new technologies such as direct ocean removal are proving to be hubs of innovation. On today’s show, Brenna Casey, a member of BloombergNEF’s Sustainable Materials team, joins Dana to discuss new directions in carbon sequestration, how tax credits and other policies are shaping CCS projects around the globe, and what whales have to do with capturing carbon. The episode draws on BNEF research including “CCUS Market Outlook 1H 2024: Trough of Disillusionment” and “Direct Air Capture’s Technology Battle to Heat Up in 2030s”.

A wave of new liquefied natural gas projects are due to be commissioned by the end of the decade. Yet a sharp increase in supply runs the risk of creating a glut, and with the rise of this transportable commodity, what impacts one market could have a ripple effect around the world. Today’s show addresses the interplay between global and regional gas markets, with co-hosts Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees joined by Fauziah Marzuki, Global Head of Gas Markets at BNEF. Together, they discuss the role of the US and China in how LNG moves around the globe, how shifting policies and net-zero goals are impacting the outlook for natural gas, and the ‘shadow fleet’ that recently departed sanctioned LNG terminals in Russia. The show draws upon BNEF research including Global LNG Market Outlook 2030: Focus on Supply Risks and Global LNG Supply Outlook 2030: Second US Wave Incoming.

Using electricity seems so simple: You flip a switch, and the light turns on. Yet behind that simple action is a sprawling and complex system of supply, demand and free-market economics. Today’s show dives into power markets. What are they and what role do they play in increasing the efficiency of power systems? Tom Rowlands-Rees, BNEF’s Global Head of Power Markets, hosts Helen Kou, Head of US Power, and Ian Berryman, Head of Energy Systems Modeling, to talk about capacity markets, vertically integrated utilities, power purchase agreements, and how changes to market design could help power markets better incorporate renewable energy.

What do biofuels, renewable power, and the food on your plate have in common? They all need land, and lots of it. While the technologies required to reach a net-zero future are expanding alongside rising energy demand, growing populations and higher living standards could require roughly a fifth more land be cultivated for agriculture by mid-century. Of the available land on Earth, decisions must be made regarding whether to devote it to agriculture, biofuels, bioplastics, power generation, battery metals or nature conservation. The challenge is profound, yet key solutions are emerging, including co-location and innovations to improve energy output and agricultural yields. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Hugh Bromley, BNEF’s Head of Food, Agriculture and Nature, and Kostas Pegios, who specializes in modeling at BNEF. Together they discuss the vast quantity of land required for the energy transition, which renewable energy technologies can be co-located with existing agriculture, and the competition between food crops and biofuels for suitable land.

With the rise of intermittent renewable energy generation, the need for long-duration energy storage is rising fast. Lithium-ion batteries currently dominate the market, with record-low prices fueled by a global oversupply in battery manufacturing, but a group of new energy storage technologies may be about to challenge this technology’s position. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Yiyi Zhou, a BNEF clean power specialist, and Evelina Stoikou, a senior associate on its energy storage team, to review findings from their inaugural Long-Duration Energy Storage Cost Survey. Together they discuss the different types of long-duration energy storage studied in the report, whether these technologies can challenge the dominance of cheap lithium-ion batteries, and which countries are adopting these latest advanced storage options and why.

This year has been a mixed bag for electric vehicles. After EV sales hit new highs in 2023, some automakers have now revised down their near-term targets, citing falling demand. While this may have generated headlines, the overall market offers a more nuanced image, with different segments outperforming others, and growth in developing economies starting to pick up pace. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Electric Vehicles, Aleksandra O’Donovan, and Head of Advanced Transport and Energy Storage, Colin McKerracher, to talk about findings from this year’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook. Together they discuss the slowdown in EV sales seen in some regions, the collapse in Chinese battery prices and its effect on the wider market, and the rise of electric commercial vehicles.

Driven by supportive policies and a maturing project pipeline, clean hydrogen supply is set to increase 30-fold by 2030. Demand will be aided in part by Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and other government policies, but fewer than a third of the 1,600 hydrogen projects that have been announced so far actually materialize in our analysis, and they are often subject to delays. On today’s show, Dana and hydrogen analyst Adithya Bhashyam discuss findings from our recent hydrogen outlooks. Together, they cover the global picture for clean hydrogen production, including how the US is leading the way on gas-fueled blue H2 and the uncertainty around the scale of future Chinese green hydrogen production capacity. They delve into the need for government support for offtake agreements, and the large gap between clean hydrogen supply and demand.

Each year, BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook develops and evaluates scenarios for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Delving into electricity, industry, buildings and transport, this flagship report outlines sector and country transition scenarios out to 2050. On today’s show, Dana is joined by co-host Tom Rowlands-Rees, BNEF’s head of research for North America, and guest David Hostert, Head of Economics and Modeling at BNEF and lead author of the New Energy Outlook. They discuss nine technological pillars that underpin the energy transition, and consider which of these are gaining traction or stalling. They also debate the value scenario exercises bring to those working in climate and energy when charting the path to a net-zero future.

The persistent oversupply of solar modules has pushed prices to record lows and threatened the competitiveness of manufacturing outside of Asia. Against this backdrop, a group of US companies has petitioned the Biden administration for further tariffs to be applied. While China has historically been the target of the US government, the latest levies are focused on Southeast Asian countries where Chinese manufacturers have set up shop: Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. On today’s show, Dana is joined by co-host Tom Rowlands-Rees, and Pol Lezcano from our solar team. Together they discuss whether these tariffs could do more harm than good, given the push for net zero and the significantly cheaper modules that are already available. They also unpack the range and depth of the proposed duties, and how likely they are to support new and existing solar manufacturing in the US.

The European Union could be leaning towards a more protectionist stance when it comes to clean industry manufacturing, with policies such as import tariffs and domestic content targets under consideration. Would such protectionist measures help the domestic clean energy and electric vehicle sectors flourish? Today’s show brings you a panel from the BloombergNEF Summit Munich, in which Herbert Diess, Chairman of Infineon and The Mobility House; Jacek Truszczynski, Deputy Head of Unit - Net Zero Industries, Sustainable and Circular Products at the European Commission; Yann Vincent, CEO of Automotive Cells Company; and Håkon Volldal, CEO of Nel Hydrogen were led in conversation by Jon Moore, CEO of BNEF. They debated whether the European Union should follow the US in applying tariffs to Chinese imports, the inflationary risks that could arise should trade barriers go up, and the risks and potential benefits of allowing foreign markets to build clean-tech manufacturing plants in Europe. This episode of Switched On was recorded live at the BNEF Summit Munich.

The global nuclear industry has been plagued with retirements for over a decade. However, after delegates at the COP28 summit last year voiced aspirations to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, the industry could be poised for growth. The usual regulatory, environmental and economic hurdles remain, but small modular reactors have the potential to ameliorate several of these obstacles if they can get off the ground. Meanwhile, exuberance for nuclear energy has been dampened by fluctuations in the price of enriched uranium. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s lead nuclear analyst, Chris Gadomski. He shares insights from the recent report Nuclear Market Outlook 1H 2024: Big Dreams Despite Hurdles, and provides perspective on the feasibility of a comeback story for the nuclear industry.