War on the Rocks

In this episode, we get into what's driving the Indo-Pacific's security dynamics, from China's threats to Taiwan to AUKUS and the Quad to stability (or lack thereof) on the Korean Peninsula to bases in the Philippines. We also touch on how prepared the United States may be to deliver military power in the Indo-Pacific based on forthcoming resourcing decisions by the Trump administration and Congress. Get ready for a smart, insightful conversation you won't want to miss with Lisa Curtis (CNAS), Zack Cooper (AEI), and Dmitri Alperovitch (Silverado). Cooper has a great new book out called Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries (https://a.co/d/cP4OPgU). And so does Alperovitch, who wrote World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century (https://a.co/d/eUDRdlF) with Garrett M. Graff.

Last week, a meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House exploded into acrimony in front of the cameras. Since then, an era-defining drama has been unfolding across the West as Europe prepares for a world where it might not be backed by U.S. military power. U.S. military aid and at least some intelligence support for Ukraine have also been suspended. What happened? And what happens next? To answer these questions, Ryan was joined by Constanze Stelzenmüller (Brookings), Melinda Haring (Razom), Justin Logan (Cato), and Michael Kofman (Carnegie). The letter referenced by Stelzenmüller can be read here: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_684

The Marine general and deputy commandant in charge of installations and logistics was kind enough to join Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on military service, logistics, and so much more. Whether you are a servicemember or someone interested in how the U.S. military will be able to stay in the fight should a war break out in the Indo-Pacific, this episode is a must-listen.

Nothing about the war in Ukraine is simple — including the diplomacy, which might be even messier than the battlefield. Michael Kofman, Justin Logan (Cato), and Liana Fix (the Council on Foreign Relations) joined Ryan to help him understand the negotiations underway about Ukraine's fate. From the minerals deal to Zelensky's approach to Trump to the prospects for a European peacekeeping force, they cover it all, and have a few friendly arguments along the way.

Member of U.K. Parliament and military veteran Tom Tugendhat was recently in Washington and was kind enough to join Ryan for a short but weighty conversation. Tugendhat chaired the Foreign Affairs Select Committee between 2017 and 2022 and then served in the previous government as minister of state for security. They discussed his time in government as well as the landscape of threats, including (not surprisingly) Russia — and how the war might best end — as well as China, informed by his recent trip to Taiwan. Please note this episode was recorded before the Munich Security Conference.

Will NATO be able to innovate and adapt before a crisis? Adm. Pierre Vandier popped into War on the Rocks HQ for a most interesting chat about this very question. He serves as Supreme Allied Commander Transformation. A senior leader in the French navy and career fighter pilot, Vandier is responsible for the transformation of NATO's military structures, forces, capabilities, and doctrines. With Ukraine struggling against Russia, technology advancing at a thunderous pace, and the geopolitical landscape shifting, Vandier offers some fascinating, quotable insights.

Mike Kofman joined Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on the challenges faced by both Ukraine and Russia this year. They discuss losses on both sides, manpower challenges, the importance of following the discourse in Ukraine, the Russian economy, and whether the Russian pace of operations will clearly slow down. This episode is brought to you by Bedrock Knowledge.

On the sidelines of I/ITSEC in Orlando, we hosted a live podcast recording. Our guest for this very special episode was Maj. Gen. Dominique Luzeaux of France, currently championing NATO's digital transformation. This wide-ranging conversation between Ryan and Maj. Gen. Luzeaux covered training with new technologies, lessons from Ukraine, AI and more. They both also discussed what they learned from the best bosses they ever had. Thanks to Metrea for sponsoring the very special party where we recorded this episode, as well as the terrific audience in Orlando at the Capital Grille.

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly.

We are sharing a free Thanksgiving episode of the Russia Contingency with you all to express our gratitude for your listenership and support. This episode, brought to you by OneBrief, features Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussing the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the role of technology, especially drones. Many of the insights they share are based on their recent research trip to Ukraine.

Mike Kofman came by WOTR HQ to discuss the state of the front and findings from his most recent research trip to Ukraine. From North Korean troops, to manpower woes, to Donald Trump coming back to the Oval Office, what does it all add up to for Ukraine?

Ryan popped over to Quantico to speak with four marines at the forefront of major advances in marksmanship in America's 9-1-1 force. Listen in as Maj. Steve Stephenson, Capt. Phil Williams, Gunner Josh Grayek, and Gunnery Sgt. Jude Stewart of Weapons Training Battalion explain how they are making the Marine Corps more lethal and capable than ever before. And, if you're interested in reading more, check out their article in the Gazette, "Continuously Revolutionizing Small-Arms Lethality."

Michael Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the war. They discussed territorial losses in the Donbas, the situation in Kursk, manpower challenges on both sides, and how Ukraine is seeing war termination on favorable terms. This episode also features a short preview of the most recent episode of Mike's members-only show, "The Russia Contingency," which featured an extended conversation with Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and world-renowned expert on military affairs. Become a member to listen here: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Three sharp directors on the National Security Council staff invited Ryan over to the Eisenhower Executive Office Building to chat about the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, which is a trilateral partnership between the United States, Canada, and Finland that's aimed at delivering the icebreakers America needs while also jump-starting U.S. competitiveness and power in shipbuilding overall. We also advertise our new members-only podcast hosted by Benjamin Jensen, "Not the AI You're Looking For" in the middle of this episode. Join War on the Rocks platinum and listen at https://warontherocks.com/membership

Mike Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the state of play in Ukraine. From south to north, they review the situation at the front, with special attention to Ukraine's offensive operation into Russian territory, to include its political implications. They talk about manpower and fortifications and explore how much F-16s might change the skies over Ukraine. This episode was sponsored by Onebrief. Learn more about how they are transforming military planning: onebrief.com

The U.S. Army, from the chief of staff on down, is putting its weight behind getting soldiers to take writing and publishing more seriously as an important part of the profession of arms. From the Harding Project to the revitalization of branch journals to the Line of Departure website (coming this fall) to a special forthcoming issue of Military Review on the topic, there is a lot of energy, action, and momentum behind this. Three soldiers — one non-commissioned officer and two officers — join Ryan to talk about why professional writing is so important for the writing and the solider. We hope you enjoy this conversation with Sgt. 1st Class Leyton Summerlin, Maj. Emily Lopez, and Lt. Col. Zachary Griffiths. The views they express do not represent those of the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, or any part of the U.S. government.

This is part one of a two-parter on Ukraine's operation into the Russian oblast of Kursk and it's from our members-only show, "The Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman. In this episode Mike discusses this fast developing situation with his colleague at the Carnegie Endowment, Dara Massicot. If you're a member, you can listen to part two. Become member at: https://warontherocks.com/membership.

Ryan was joined by Melissa Griffith (SAIS-Johns Hopkins), Anne Marie Schumann (Department of the Navy), Alexis Bonnell (Air Force Research Laboratory), and Tyler Sweatt (Second Front) for a free-wheeling, candid, and thoughtful conversation on the challenges of cyber security in the Defense Department. You won't want to miss this. Please keep in mind that the views expressed by Schumann and Bonnell are their own and do not represent those of their organizations, the Department of the Navy, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.

A sailor from a landlocked state and a soldier from a state with the country's second longest coastline are trying to accomplish something transformative for American seapower. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) are leading an important bi-partisan and bi-cameral effort to revitalize American shipbuilding and maritime strategy. They were kind enough join Ryan for a substantive and wide-ranging conversation. You can read their report on national maritime strategy here (pdf).

Mike Kofman dropped by War on the Rocks HQ to update us on the war, drawing on his findings from his recent field study in Ukraine. They discuss the state of the front (and why developments at the front might be less important than before), mobilization, China's role as a gateway and supplier for Russia, the debate over Ukraine using U.S. weapons for deep strike into Russia, and tough choices facing Kyiv.