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Turkish-backed forces have launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. The Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, is pushing against the US-supported People's Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara claims is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades. The YPG controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey, which Ankara says poses a security threat. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan says Turkey is determined to prevent the YPG and its affiliate the PKK from exploiting a power vacuum following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead "We are in communication with the groups to make sure that terrorist organisations, especially Daesh [Islamic State] and the PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation," he said. "Turkey is committed to continuing the fight against terrorism. All minorities – non-Muslims, Christians, non-Arabs, Kurds – should be treated equally." Opportunity for Ankara Ever since the YPG took over control of the Syrian territory at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Ankara has been seeking to remove it. With the ousting of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of its Iranian and Russian backers, which had in the past blocked Turkish military interventions, analysts say Ankara now sees an opportunity to finally remove the YPG threat. "The current situation creates an opportunity for its [Turkey's] fight against PKK and YPG because there is now no Russia, there is no Iran," explains Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University. "Turkey was facing the Russian forces, the Iranian forces, and Assad's regime forces while it was combatting the PKK and YPG," she added. "We can name it as an opportunity for its fight against PKK and YPG." Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda However, the YPG is still being supported by a small US military force, as part of the war against the Islamic State (IS). The YPG is also detaining thousands of IS militants. 'The Euphrates is a line' With the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army now approaching the Euphrates River, analysts say further eastward advances could put Ankara on a collision course with both Washington, and Syria's new rulers – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. "The Euphrates now is like a line perhaps for the US military," explains Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet. "If that [military advance] goes on as such, it could bring Turkey indirectly head to head with the US, with even perhaps HTS, and it could put Ankara in a delicate diplomatic position again," warned Selcen. Tensions with Israel The Israeli military's advance into Syria is adding to Ankara's concerns over the threat posed by the PYG and its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar last month described the Kurds as a "natural ally" of Israel, a comment that came amid growing Israeli-Turkish tensions. Turkey seeks Gaza ceasefire role despite US criticism over Hamas ties "Israel is now carving out a corridor [in Syria] between the PKK/PYD-controlled territories, and its own territories," explained Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University. "That suggests that this is what they [Israel] are trying to do – [to create] a Kurdish puppet state east of the Euphrates. And this is something that is likely to create lots of problems with Turkey," he added. With Israel's presence in Syria, Ankara is likely to step up pressure on the YPG, and on the incoming Trump administration to end US military presence in Syria.

As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues, a collection of films titled From Ground Zero, created by Gaza-based filmmakers, has earned a place at the Oscars. The project, overseen by Palestinian filmmaker Rashid Masharawi, includes 22 short films spanning documentary, animation, and drama. The films aim to share the voices of people living through the conflict in Gaza, offering a glimpse into their fears, dreams and hopes. "The idea for From Ground Zero came immediately, in the second month of this ongoing war, to try to pick up films and stories from Gaza," Masharawi told RFI. He explained that the goal was to give filmmakers in Gaza the chance to make their own films. As a recent report from Reporters Without Borders (RSF) underlines the toll of the war on Palestinian journalists, RFI spoke with him and his team in Paris. RSF says Israel responsible for one-third of journalist deaths in 2024 The shorts, ranging from three to six minutes, are "a mix between fiction, documentaries, video art and even experimental films," he said. "We are filmmakers, we are dealing with cinema. Even if it's a catastrophe, it's very tough with all the massacres. But we were also trying to make cinema, to add life, to be optimistic and to add hope." The 112-minute collection is presented as a feature film in two parts. Contributors include Reema Mahmoud, Muhammad Al Sharif, Tamer Nijim and Alaa Islam Ayou. From film festivals to the Oscars After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in September, From Ground Zero toured film festivals across Europe, North Africa and South West Asia in November and December. Screenings have taken place at the French Arab Film Festival near Paris, the Bristol Palestine Film Festival and in London. Additional showings are scheduled for Morocco and Egypt. Earlier this year, Masharawi held an outdoor screening of the film during the Cannes Film Festival to protest its exclusion from the event. Now, the collection has been selected to represent Palestine at the Oscars in March 2025, with hopes of a wider release in the United States, Europe and the Middle East. UN rapporteur says Israel's war in Gaza is 'emptying the land completely' Emerging voices The project was made possible by the Masharawi Fund for Gaza Filmmakers, launched in November 2023 to support creative talent from the territory. Masharawi, who is from Gaza, is one of the first Palestinian filmmakers to have directed cinema projects in the occupied Palestinian territories. His first film, Travel Document, was released in 1986, followed by The Shelter in 1989 and Long Days in Gaza in 1991. The executive producer of the film, Laura Nikolov, who is French and based in France, is travelling with Masharawi to promote the film around the world. "It's a very unique project," she told RFI. "We have now translated it into 10 different languages. We made this to allow the voices of the Gazan people [to be heard] and it's working. I think we've reached more than 60, perhaps 80 screenings and festivals." With its selection for the Oscars, Nikolov is hopeful that the film will reach even wider audiences. "This means it will be shown in cinemas in the United States," she said, adding that they hope to expand its reach across Europe and the Middle East.

Ankara, one of the principal backers of some of the Syrian rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad, is being seen as a winner in the overthrow of the Assad regime. However, analysts warn much of the success of the operation will depend on whether a stable government emerges. This dramatic end to the Assad family's half-century rule over Syria marks a significant shift in the region's balance of power, with analysts predicting that Turkey’s influence in Syria could now grow at the expense of its regional rivals. "Turkey emerged… by proving its relevance, importance and its strength… out of these latest developments in Syria… as the clean, clear winner," says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet. "And Iran is definitely the loser. And Russia also is pushed aside." Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army played a role in the overthrow of Assad. However, it was the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahir Al Sham – or HTS – that led the offensive. And that, analysts say, will be a cause for apprehension in Ankara. "Despite all the jubilation of the Turkish press and the government and the circles that support the government about the collapse of the Assad regime in general, I would think there is some uneasiness," says Hasan Unal, professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University. "I can see it through lots of problematic issues that would be coming out of what's going to happen," he added, "because of the ideological Islamist leanings of the incumbent government and… the Islamic jihadist terrorist groups associated with it." Support and protection However, Turkey may not be entirely without influence over Syria's new Islamist leaders. For years, it provided support and protection to the Idlib region of Syria, where HTS was based. Analyst Aydin Selcen suggests Ankara could retain significant influence if recent statements by HTS leadership calling for an inclusive Syrian government are honoured. "If pragmatism prevails, that's perhaps where Turkey and Ankara may come in. And also Ankara definitely will be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers, because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and also that Turkey helped protect Idlib." Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, addressing an international conference in Doha last Sunday, 8 December, said that Turkey is committed to helping secure a politically inclusive new Syria. Turkey's Syrian refugees A stable Syria is also key to Ankara's goal of sending home millions of Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. Public resentment over their presence has grown, as the country has grappled with an economic crisis over the past few years. However, such a return may not be simple, predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s independent Politikyol news site. "The refugees, the Syrians you have in Turkey, are mostly women and children. So it has to be a [new Syrian] government, an administration, friendly to women and children, especially women." "But we don't know if these Islamic jihadist groups will be really friendly towards these groups," he added. "There might be a Taliban 2.0 arising just across the border; we don't know what kind of administration HTS and surrounding groups will be. It's a big security risk; I don't see Syria settling down to become a safe clash-free place." 'Imperative' to work against IS in Syria, Blinken tells Turkey For now, Erdogan is celebrating the overthrow of Assad as a Turkish triumph, with European leaders and Washington queuing up to speak to him as Turkey positions itself as a key player in shaping Syria's future. But the sudden demise of the Assad regime underscores how quickly fortunes can change in the region, and the future of Syria – and Turkey's role in it – are today more...

The capture of Syria's major cities by rebel groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, fighting against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, offers Turkey the opportunity to achieve its strategic goals in the country. The lightning offensive of Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which has seen the rebels capture several major Syrian cities in less than two weeks, gives Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leverage over his Syrian counterpart President Bashar al-Assad. "Turkey can easily stop both [rebel] entities and start a process. Turkey does have this strength, and Assad is well aware of it," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. Until now, Assad has rejected Erdogan's overtures for dialogue to end the civil war peacefully. "The Turkish intention politically is not to escalate in Syria [but to] start a political, diplomatic engagement with the Assad regime, and come to the terms of a normal state, and that all Syrians safely return to their homes," Aslan noted. Syrian rebels surround Hama 'from three sides', monitor says Syrian refugees an issue Erdogan is seeking to return many of the estimated 4 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, amid growing public unease over their presence in the country. "According to the opinion polls here, yes, the Syrian refugees [are] an issue. For any government, it would be a wonderful win to see these Syrians going back to Syria of their own will," explained Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news outlet. However, Moscow has a lot to lose in Syria, as a key military backer of Assad, who in turn has granted Russia use of a key Syrian naval base. "For Moscow, it's of crucial importance that the personality of Assad remains in power," said Zaur Gasimov, a professor of history and a Russia specialist at the University of Bonn. Syria rebel leader says goal is to overthrow Assad Gasimov warns that Turkey could be facing another humanitarian crisis. "Russia would definitely use the military force of its aerospace forces, that can cause a huge number of casualties among civilians. Which means a new wave of migrants towards Turkish eastern Anatolia." With more than a million Syrian refugees camped just across the Turkish border in the rebel-controlled Syrian Idlib province, analysts warn a new exodus into Turkey is a red line for Ankara. "If they refresh their attacks on the captured areas by indiscriminate targeting... well [we can] expect further escalations in the region," warned Aslan of the pro-government SETA think tank. "And for sure there is a line that Turkey will not remain as it is, and if there is a development directly threatening the interests or security of Turkey, then Turkey will intervene." Pushing back the YPG With the Syrian rebel offensive also making territorial gains against the US-backed Kurdish militant group, the YPG, Ankara is poised to secure another strategic goal in Syria. Ankara accuses the YPG of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is fighting the Turkish state. France joins Germany, US and Britain in call for de-escalation in Syria "Without putting up a fight, and without getting directly involved, they [Ankara] have achieved one of their goals – for YPG to pull back from the Turkish frontier towards the south," explained Selcen. "I think Ankara now is closer to that goal." With Syrian rebel successes appearing to advance Ankara's goals in Syria, some analysts are urging caution, given the rebels' links to radical Islamist groups. "The crashing down of the Assad regime is not in the interest of Turkey, because there will be chaos," warned international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. "Who is going to rule? What type...

Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire, despite its close ties with Hamas, which have drawn criticism from Washington. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to "make every contribution" to end what he called the "massacre" in Gaza. US President Joe Biden signalled this week that Turkey could have a role in mediating peace in the Middle East. "The United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza," Biden told reporters. However, US officials have downplayed Turkey’s mediating role due to Ankara’s ties to Hamas. "We don't believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in ... a major city of one of our key allies and partners," US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said earlier. Hamas tensions Hamas leaders reportedly relocated to Turkey after the collapse of ceasefire efforts in November. Erdogan, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has described the group as a "liberation movement". Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Erdogan declared a national day of mourning. "There are rumours, and I don’t know how true they are, that many of those people have actually received Turkish citizenship as well," Soli Ozel, a lecturer at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna told RFI. In a move seen as an attempt to placate Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that there are no plans for Hamas to open a political bureau in Turkey. Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin defended the policy: "Ankara will continue its position hosting Hamas number one. Number two, they will continue dialogue with Hamas in order to establish peace". Turkish President Erdogan ready to rekindle friendship with Trump Complex ties Despite tensions between Turkey and Israel, they maintain back-channel communication. In November, the head of Israel’s intelligence agency Shin Bet met his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. The meeting reportedly centred on the plight of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. "We have 101 hostages that are still, we don’t know their fate," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies. "There are attempts to at least receive information about who’s alive, who’s dead, who’s holding them – Hamas or Islamic Jihad." Lindenstrauss cautioned that Israel remains sceptical of Turkey’s ability to act as a neutral mediator. "It would be very hard for Israel in general and specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu to trust Turkey to be a mediator that will be respectful to both sides," she said. While Erdogan’s public rhetoric often inflames tensions, analysts say Turkish-Israeli relations are shaped more by pragmatism than politics. "Turkey and Israel have one way of dealing with one another in public and another way of dealing with one another diplomatically and in security cooperation," Ozel explains. In a possible effort to build trust, Turkish authorities recently extradited three Uzbek suspects linked to the murder of an Israeli rabbi in the United Arab Emirates. Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya’s rival factions Challenges remain As Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a Gaza ceasefire for now. "The reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas," Netanyahu said Tuesday. "From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas." Despite Ankara’s overtures, Israel has warned that Hamas leaders are not safe from targeting, even in Turkey. "They will find these Hamas leaders and target them wherever they find them," Lindenstrauss maintains.

In Turkey, hundreds of new producers are growing the country's wine industry, and its international reputation – despite increasing taxation and controls by President Erdogan's religious, conservative government. Grapes have been grown for centuries in Manisa, western Turkey. It is here that Fulya Akinci and her Spanish husband, Jose Hernandez Gonzalez, decided they wanted to be a part of the transformation of the country's wine industry. "In 2005, in 2006, maybe when you went to a restaurant, you would order red wine or white wine, that was it," explains Akinci. "In the last 15 years, there has been a real boom. We have so many, we say, boutique wineries. Now, with these small wineries, the quality has changed a lot." With their wine label Heraki, Akinci and Hernandez Gonzalez are part of this surge of new, small producers – a group which has grown to number around 200, from only a handful a decade ago. The couple trained at a wine school in Bordeaux and have worked in vineyards around the world. Hernandez Gonzalez explained that it was Turkey's untapped potential that persuaded him and Akinci to produce their own wine there. "As a foreigner, when I came to Turkey I was really surprised about the biodiversity of different grape varieties," he said. "This is a country with many different grape varieties. Also, [there was] the potential of the soils and the climate. We have mountains, we have the coasts – many different climates to make grapes. And the potential of those grapes to make wine is huge." France asks for EU help to destroy 'unprofitable' Bordeaux vines Government restrictions Hernandez Gonzales explained that rather than making wine from vines used worldwide, they decided to use indigenous grapes. "One of our main ideas here at Heraki was to make wines from those local grapes." In five years, their production has increased from a couple of thousand to 20,000 bottles. But the couple says this has been an uphill struggle. "We have some difficulties because of the bureaucracy – so much paperwork – and some pressures over tax... so huge pressures on us. It's not easy at all," explained Akinci. Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK), which enjoys large support among Muslims, has, since coming to power in 2002, hiked alcohol taxes to 65 percent, among the highest in the world. There are also growing restrictions on wine production, sales and advertising. "We love making wine, but it's not easy at all. It's hard, and every day is getting worse and worse," said Akinci. Turkey's broadcasting authorities banned images of alcohol on television back in 2013, and in much of the country securing alcohol licences is difficult. Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activists But meanwhile, government adverts promoting Turkey as a tourist destination abroad often highlight the country's wines as an attraction. With much of the wine industry based in tourism centres, experts say tourists are helping to drive demand and grow the reputation of Turkish wines. International interest "Wine producers have started to get better prices for their wines. They can now make money, against all the odds. There is international interest," said wine consultant Sabiha Apaydın Gonenli. Through her Kok Koken Toprak Conference (Root Soil Wine Conference) international symposiums, she promotes Turkey's wine industry internationally. However, she warns the industry still has a long way to go. "It's not that economically viable at the moment because it is very small. In order to market this, you need support. You can't do this alone, wine producers need to come together." Police break up French-Italian wine fraud ring As for Heraki wines, they are now being stocked at a top European restaurant and have secured a German distributor. But despite such successes, Akinci says wine-making in Turkey remains a bittersweet experience. "One day, we are so happy to make wine here, and we are thinking about increasing the...

The banning of an Istanbul-based independent radio station has sparked political condemnation and protests in Turkey. With a mission to bridge the country's cultural divides over the last 30 years, Acik Radio's closure is seen as part of the government's attempts to tighten its grip on the media. Turkey's media regulator, RTUK, revoked the station's licence, claiming it had failed to comply with an earlier fine and suspension. That order came after a guest earlier this year referred to the 1915 killings of Armenians by Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers as a genocide. RTUK ruled that the comment incited public hatred. While Acik did pay the fine, it didn't come off air, saying it was appealing the initial ruling in court. The revocation of its broadcasting licence has drawn international condemnation and alarm. "Acik Radio has always adopted a moderate language, reflecting various political views," Erol Onderoglu, the Turkey representative for Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) told RFI. Onderoglu warns that banning Acik is part of a wider trend in the country of "eliminating media pluralism and weakening remaining minority voices". He continued: "It is in line with a political mission to impose a single official view on society, what they call national and patriotic journalism." 'Cultural hub' In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, listeners have been chanting in protest over Acik Radio's removal from the airwaves. Elif Unal, an avid listener, said the station has been an important part of everyday life for a long time. "They ban everything that makes us smile, that makes us feel happy," she said. "Most of the people in Istanbul, across Turkey, open their eyes listening to Acik Radio. Acik Radio is important because it's a cultural hub and also a political supporter of many organisations, NGOs and activists." Armenians warn ethnic cleansing risks being forgotten – again Protestor Mete Atature said he grew up listening to Acik. "Whichever programme you are listening to, you'll learn something. Not like a lecture, not like an education programme, but there's always something it leaves you with, and I miss that." He added: "From one side, of course, it's a shock. From another side, it's not unexpected, given the way the whole country is going. There is less and less free speech, and there's more oppression, and this is another example." Diverse voices Since its launch in 1994, Acik Radio has sought to bridge Turkey's deep cultural and political divides. Volunteers produce and present social and cultural programmes that represent the country's diverse population, including minorities. Yetvart Danzikyan hosted Acik's show "Radio Agos," a programme aimed at Turkey's Armenian minority. "We tried to make the unheard voices of not only the Armenian community but also all the other minorities, the Greek, Jewish, and Suryani communities," he said, adding that they were trying to bring even more unheard voices to the station's programmes. Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Turkey's main opposition parties are supporting the station, and say the closure is a government attempt to further tighten its grip on the country's media. For now, Acik has returned to broadcasting via the internet, securing a licence under the new name of APACIK Radio. But those who run the station feel they are fighting an uphill battle. "The general atmosphere is getting towards more repression in Turkey," Acik's co-founder Omer Madra said wearily. "But we are very determined to fight on, and we've had some magnificent support from all the regions of the country."

With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump’s first presidency. Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a "friend" on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations. During Biden’s presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two "brief encounters" with Biden, he adds. Chemistry Erdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump's first term in office. "The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable," notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University. He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey's NATO partners. "Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that's something that Turkey has always preferred," predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Turkey eyes US presidential race that stands to shake up mutual ties YPG policy Erdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state. The YPG’s alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan’s calls to end support for the group. Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal. "Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two," says Selcen. Unpredictability While Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable. “Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank. Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations. Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel’s war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump’s strong support for Israel and Erdogan’s backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming. "What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it's very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey," says Aslan. With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region. But given the leaders' unpredictability, that opportunity doesn't come without risks.

As the United States stands on the brink of what many are calling the most consequential presidential election in recent history, the nation is focused on the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump organised last-day rallies. RFI's Jan van der Made looks back at a campaign marked by unprecedented polarisation. The bitter rivals embarked on a final frenzied campaign blitz Monday with both hitting must-win Pennsylvania on the last day of a tight and volatile US presidential election campaign. Pennsylvania is the single biggest swing state prize under the US Electoral College system, which awards influence in line with population. Republican Trump has promised a "landslide" as he seeks his return to the White House, while Democrat Harris said the "momentum" was on the side of her bid to be America's first woman president. Deadlock But the polls suggest a different story on the eve of Election Day – total deadlock in surveys nationally and in the seven swing states where the result is expected to be decided. The world is anxiously watching the election, which is set to have profound implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine, and for tackling climate change. Both sides say they are encouraged by early turnout numbers, with over 78 million people having voted already, around half of the total number of ballots cast in 2020. No middle ground The closeness of the 2024 White House race reflects a deeply divided United States, as it chooses between two candidates whose visions could scarcely be more different. Media outlets and political parties have poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns that leave little room for middle ground. This stark divide is a reflection of the American political system, where the winner-takes-all approach often marginalises third-party candidates and reinforces the dominance of the two major parties. US elections: Who are the running mates for the key candidates? As election day approaches, the spotlight has fallen on undecided voters who may ultimately tip the scales in this tight race. Campaign volunteers have been working tirelessly, engaging directly with potential voters in an effort to sway opinions and drive turnout. To discuss what is at stake, RFI's Jan van der Made spoke to analyst J. Wesley Leckrone, Chair Political Science Widener University, Daniel Hopkins, Political Scientist University of Pennsylvania and Daniel Laurison, Associate Professor Sociology at Swarthmore College and former campaigner for Barack Obama.

With the presidential election in the United States only days away, Turkey is watching the vote closely. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed a close working relationship with Donald Trump when he was president, analysts warn that a second term for Trump wouldn't come without risks for Ankara. Erdogan has avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the outcome of the 5 November vote as key for Turkish-US relations. Each of the contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take significantly different approaches to Turkey's long-time leader. "During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship at the highest level between Erdogan and Trump was a strong one," says Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank. Ties with President Joe Biden have been notably less friendly, however, if Harris were to win the relationship with Erdogan is likely to be a much more shallow one, Ulgen believes. Face-to-face time Erdogan met Trump nine times during his 2017-21 presidency, including on a state visit to Washington. In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with US-Turkish relations mainly conducted at foreign-minister level. "Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital," says international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "For Erdogan, leader-to-leader talks are key to achieving his goals. And probably, he thinks deep down that he can sort out many things through personal contact, connections or personal engagement." Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as vital to Erdogan's status at home. "It's very important for his domestic standing and legitimacy," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "He has built a personalised system but also convinced voters, particularly his base, that he is a consequential leader, that Turkey is rising, that he is very important, he is on par with the US president and the Russian president, that everybody is looking up to Erdogan." Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctions Lack of chemistry? Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to develop a relationship with Harris, even if she were ready to engage more directly than Biden. "I cannot imagine what type of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't come from similar backgrounds. It's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship, to be honest," the analyst says. Erdogan has often spoken warmly of his relationship with Trump – despite the fact he got hit by sanctions during his time in the White House over the detention of an American pastor, prompting the Turkish lira to crash in 2018. Trump once even vowed to "totally destroy and obliterate" the Turkish economy over Turkey's threats to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces. "We have memories of the threats and sanctions," warns Murat Aslan of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara. Invoking the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: "Rather than words, I think deeds are important." Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy High-risk candidate The Middle East is another potential sticking point. Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders. "Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the...

A year of war in Gaza has undermined international law and threatens to make the strip uninhabitable, according to the United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese. She tells RFI why she is making the case for Israel's offensive to be classified a genocide. More than 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing extremely critical levels of hunger, according to the UN. Seventy percent of crop fields and livelihoods have been destroyed during the Israeli military offensive. The war, which has claimed 42,000 lives in Gaza and left hundreds of thousands wounded, has also spread to the West Bank and Lebanon. Civilians as well as UN peacekeepers have been targeted by Israel's forces. "I used the word 'catastrophe' for the first time back in October 2023," Albanese told RFI, "when Israel had killed 8,000, 6,000 people in the first weeks of the conflict and destroyed entire neighbourhoods, bakeries, churches, and targeted UN buildings and universities. "This is not the way wars are conducted." Albanese was speaking as she prepared to launch her latest report on the situation in Gaza and the other Palestinian territories, which she presented to the UN General Assembly earlier this week. In it, she takes a long view of the current conflict, arguing that Israel's military actions form part of a systematic attempt to displace Palestinians that goes back decades – and which she calls a genocide. "Israel occupies that land, according to the International Court of Justice, unlawfully," Albanese said. "So Israel unlawfully occupies a territory, oppressing its people, who of course retaliate. Then they wage a war against them. It doesn't work that way." Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Gaza 'Emptying the land' Albanese acknowledges the deadly violence inflicted on Israelis by the attacks of 7 October last year, and she has advocated for the investigation and prosecution of crimes committed against civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups. But she warns that the trauma of 7 October has deepened Israeli animosity towards Palestinians and spurred calls for vengeance, providing the government with an opportunity to escalate its actions in the occupied territories with the goal of making them unliveable. "As we speak, Israel is running extermination raids neighbourhood per neighbourhood in the areas that were already forcibly evacuated, ethnically cleansed of nearly 1 million people in northern Gaza," Albanese told RFI. "Only 400,000 people remained, who have been starved, abused and bombed. What the people in Gaza have gone through is really unspeakable, and now it is emptying the land completely." Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Israel Israel and UN at odds The war has brought Israel's already tense relations with the United Nations to a low point, with the Israeli parliament this week approving a controversial bill to ban the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA – considered a lifeline for Gaza – from operating on Israeli territory. Israel claims many of the agency's staff belong to Hamas or other terrorist groups, and accused some of them of involvement in the 7 October attacks. The UN says it investigated the allegations and identified problems with neutrality, but no proof of terror links. It warns that restricting UNRWA will have a devastating effect on aid supply chains into Gaza. More broadly, UN leaders have called for a ceasefire and denounced starvation, mass displacements, atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Albanese has proved an especially controversial figure, calling for the UN to consider suspending Israel as a member state over its actions. Her stance has drawn accusations of bias and antisemitism from Israel's allies, notably the United States, which cancelled a briefing she was due to give the US Congress this week. Washington and others argue that Israel has the right to defend itself – though...

The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country. Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports. "This was a serious crisis," said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. "And while it's partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention." The row between Libya's two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict's repercussions continue. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa "A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I'm not describing a scenario of war, but I'm describing a more volatile environment," he said. Turkish-Egyptian relations However, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions. "We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability," pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis. "Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. "So it's a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey." Economic crises With both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country's rapprochement and Libyan collaboration. Fighting between rival militias in Libya kills dozens "These two countries are very important to one another," said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst "They've figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has. "So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment." Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters. Libya's stability at greater risk with turmoil in Niger and Sudan, UN warns At the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation. "What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis," said Harchaoui. "And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board. "But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place," he added.

More than 400,000 people have fled to Syria to escape Israel's military operations in Lebanon, according to the United Nations. With the numbers expected to grow as Israel steps up its offensive, neighbouring Turkey, already home to the world's largest number of refugees, fears a new wave of people seeking sanctuary. Over 405,000 people – both Lebanese and Syrian – have crossed into Syria from Lebanon since the start of Israel's offensive, according to figures from UN refugee agency UNHCR. Approximately 60 percent are under 18, UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Thursday, and most are struggling to meet basic needs. The returnees are mainly people who had sought sanctuary in Lebanon from the civil war in Syria, now in its 13th year. "In Lebanon, there have been nearly one million Syrian refugees just since 2011," says Metin Corabatir of the Research Centre on Asylum and Migration, an Ankara-based NGO. He warns this could be just the beginning of the exodus if the fighting in Lebanon continues, threatening to overwhelm Syria. "We are not talking only about Syrian refugees going back to Syria, but the Lebanese population is moving, crossing the border to Syria. And Syria would either try to close the borders or force them to go north to the Turkish borders," Corabatir told RFI. "This really would lead to a catastrophic situation for people, for countries and may pull Turkey into more tensions with Israel." Anti-refugee backlash People fleeing Lebanon have been arriving at refugee camps in north-east Syria, close to the Turkish border. But Turkey, already hosting an estimated five million refugees, including over three million Syrians, is facing growing public backlash over their presence. "Turkey basically cannot handle more refugees," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, an international think tank. Earlier this year, tensions spilled over into violence against refugees in the provincial city of Kayseri. The issue has become a significant political liability for the government, with opinion polls routinely finding large majorities wanting refugees to leave. Even if the country has the practical capacity to take more people in, "I don't see Turkey accepting a massive new wave of refugees", predicts Unluhisarcikli. Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mount Border barricades In the last couple of years, Ankara has constructed a wall along its border with Syria in a bid to prevent more refugees from entering Turkey. Murat Aslan, of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, believes such efforts will only continue as the war in the Middle East threatens to trigger a new exodus. "Turkey does not want any further waves coming from another region because Turkey is just experiencing and mending an economic crisis," he says. "Inflation is currently under control, and we expect a decrease in it. "What does another wave of refugees mean? A lot of spending, a lot of inflation, and other than this, societal insecurity. That's why Turkey will not tolerate another wave." But such a stance will likely be tested if Israel continues its offensive, creating more refugees and with them, the risk of Turkey facing a humanitarian crisis on its border. Turkey continues to host more refugees than anyone else, but for how long?

Turkey's deployment of an energy research ship accompanied by a naval escort to Somalia is the latest step in deepening bilateral ties. However, rising Ethiopian-Somali tensions threaten Turkey's substantial investments in Somalia, as Ankara's mediation efforts stall. With a great deal of fanfare, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the leaving ceremony of Turkey's energy research vessel Oruc Reis, which set sail this month to Somalia accompanied by two Turkish naval vessels. Somali energy deal The deployment of the Oruc Reis is part of an energy deal struck with Somalia and the latest step in Ankara's long-term investment in the Horn of Africa nation. "Turkey has its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu. It has a military base there. The port of Mogadishu is controlled by a Turkish company, "explained Norman Rickelfs, a geopolitical consultant. "[Turkey] signed a defense deal (with Somalia) in February, a two-part defense deal, and then an energy exploration deal in March. So, Turkey needs Somalia and Ethiopia to play well together." The threat of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa has been looming since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia. The agreement gives Ethiopia secure sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway state, a deal condemned by Somalia for infringing on its territorial integrity. Turkey enters fray mediating Ethiopia and Somalia's high-stakes dispute Somalia, Ethiopia and Turkey Ankara which has good relations with Ethiopia, as well as Somalia has been mediating. But September's round of talks, during which Ankara had indicated an agreement could be reached, has been indefinitely postponed. The postponement follows Egypt signing a defense pact with Somalia in August. Last month, Egypt sent its first shipment of arms to Somalia in four decades. Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an African studies professor at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, warns that Egypt’s military involvement complicates Ethiopian Somali reconciliation efforts. "There are also some hurdles on the way with some recent tensions, especially with the involvement of Egypt and its increasing relations with Somalia," claims Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu. Tepeciklioglu warns that the longer the Ethiopian-Somalia dispute continues, the greater the risk of contagion in an unstable region. "The shifting alliances in the region are also a source of problem, because most of the regional countries have strained relations with each other. And then they often have conflicting interests. So this might complicate the situation," explained Tepeciklioglu. Egypt's support of Somalia is the latest chapter in Egyptian-Ethiopian tensions. Those tensions center on Ethiopia's damming of the Nile River, which Egypt depends on. Cairo's position Cairo has strongly criticized the project, warning it poses an existential threat. "Egypt's military deployment to Somalia is a natural progression for an actor seeking to strengthen their hand in a regional competition," said Kaan Devecioglu of the Ankara-based think tank Orsam. However, Devecioglu says the priority must be to prevent current rivalries from overspilling into confrontation. "Egypt already has this strained relationship with Ethiopia due to tensions over the Nile River, which makes its presence in Somalia geopolitically sensitive. The issue is not that states are rivals but ensuring they are not enemies,' explained Devecioglu. Egyptian President Al Fateh Sisi discussed Ethiopian Somali tensions during last month's Ankara visit. The visit is part of rapprochement efforts between the countries. That rapprochement Ankara is likely to use to contain current tensions in the Horn of Africa. However, some experts warn Ankara's mediation efforts could be running out of time. "We see tensions escalating in the region, and we see both sides sort of trying to extract leverage and put pressure on each...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the United Nations General Assembly to criticise Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But as Erdogan tries to lead opposition to Israel, Turkey is finding itself increasingly sidelined in the region. At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an "international alliance of humanity" to stop Israel as it did Hitler 70 years ago. However, such fiery rhetoric is finding a shrinking audience. "It's more conveying a message to their own base", said Sezin Oney of the Turkish news portal Politikyol. "There isn't an audience that really sees Turkey or Erdogan as the vanguard of Palestine rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed long ago." Erdogan attempted to boost his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Ankara is increasingly finding itself sidelined as a regional diplomatic player. "Ankara's pro-Hamas approach has only marginalised Turkey in the international arena," said international relations expert Selin Nasi of the London School of Economics. "So we see Egypt and Qatar receiving credits for their roles as mediators. And Turkey is locked out of international diplomatic efforts." Since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent Gaza campaign, Ankara has tried to position itself among international mediating efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas. Turkish youth finds common cause in protests against trade with Israel Mediation efforts "Turkey was asked by the United States to speak with Hamas people", said international relations expert Soli Ozel at Vienna's Institute for Human Studies. However, Ozel says the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran denied Erdogan his diplomatic trump card. "One big blow to Turkey has been the murder of Haniyeh, with which Turkey did have very close relations. For all I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport", said Ozel. "And I really don't think Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas". With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric along with Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's National Security Studies says Turkey has nothing to offer. Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race "There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. They're the two actors that have leverage over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support of Hamas, has very little leverage on Hamas's decisions," said Lindenstrauss. "So Turkey is not effective – it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political leverage over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice ...Turkey is not very efficient. "So I don't think it's a mistake that Turkey is not part of this [mediation] process." Ankara has been quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have achieved little, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon. However, some experts claim Ankara's diplomatic sidelining has a broader message of Arab countries pushing back against Turkey's involvement in the region. "None of the Arab countries would like to get Turkey involved in this process," said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. "Turkey could be considered by their views as the enemy of Israel, but it is artificial. The Middle East Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948 has been an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict." Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals Regional ambitions For more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to project Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often referring to the years of Ottoman rule as the halcyon days of peace and tranquillity. But the...

In Turkey, a student-led campaign highlighting trade with Israel is putting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an increasingly tight spot. While the president has officially declared an embargo over Israel's war in Gaza, youth activists are exposing ongoing dealings that risk embarrassing the government and crossing traditional political divides. In Istanbul's conservative Uskudar district overlooking the Bosphorus waterway, activists from the group 1,000 Youth for Palestine recently gathered to protest the killing by Israeli security forces of the Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi. But along with chants condemning Israel, the demonstrators also attacked Erdogan and his government for Turkey's continuing trade with Israel. "I am here to force the Turkish government to stop the oil trade with Israel and to stop genocide," declared Gulsum, a university academic who only wanted to be identified by her first name for security reasons. "This is not just a public demand. It's also a legal obligation for Turkey to stop genocide." Since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the student-based group has directed its protests at the export of Azerbaijani oil to Israel by way of a Turkish port. It also targets Turkish companies – many of which have close ties to Erdogan – that it accuses of circumventing the trade embargo by using third parties. Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil Unifying cause The group uses social networks to broadcast its message, getting around government-controlled media. The activists say they have received broad support that crosses Turkey's traditional divides of religious and secular. "When it comes to Palestine, it is a story that we all unite about," said Gizem, a university student and 1,000 Youth for Palestine member. "There are those who define themselves as socialists and those who define themselves as Islamists. There are also apolitical youth who say 'I don't like politics', but still join us." While Erdogan presents himself as a stalwart defender of the Palestinian cause, police are cracking down on the protests. One of the group's Palestinian members was arrested after activists disrupted a panel discussion on Israel hosted by the state broadcaster. She now faces deportation in a case that has provoked further protests. Images of police arresting headscarf-wearing members of the group further embarrassed Erdogan and his religious base. Protests escalate in Turkey over Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel amid embargo 'Divide and rule' Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, says the group's diversity poses a problem for Erdogan, given he has often sought to exploit the deep divisions between religious and secular voters when facing attack. She argues that 1,000 Youth for Palestine's ability to bridge those gaps is indicative of a wider change in Turkish society. "It's actually portraying the current youth of Turkey – you don't have monolithic circles in the grassroots," explains Oney. "You have a mixture: hybrid groups of conservatives, conservative-looking, but very progressive," she says. "Such hybrid groups are coming together because of a cause, but ideologically or background-wise or social class-wise, they may be very diverse. "And that's something threatening for the government. Because the government is embarking on divide and rule." Persistent political headache Erdogan lost heavily in local elections earlier this year, a defeat widely blamed both on economic problems and anger over Turkey's ties to Israel. The 1,000 Youth for Palestine activists say they hope to continue to build on those results. "The reason for our success is that we put our finger on the right spot. We expose the hypocrisy of both the capitalists, the corporations and the government," claims Murat, a university student who belongs to the group. "People also saw this hypocrisy and thought that someone should speak out, and they...

Turkey is undergoing an unprecedented naval expansion, positioning itself as one of Europe’s largest naval powers. While some neighbours are alarmed, Ankara insists the build-up is defensive and meant to meet growing regional commitments. “We must have a strong and effective navy to live in peace on our lands,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after commissioning the latest of six planned submarines. Along with a new helicopter carrier, frigates and over a dozen warships under construction, this is part of Erdogan’s push to bolster the Turkish navy. “It fits Erdogan’s political agenda of exerting influence overseas, from Qatar to Somalia to Libya,” said Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. “For the navy, it means a greater role in the defence of the country – no longer just territorial, but forward defence from overseas.” New course The change has transformed the navy’s mission. “Turkish sailors used to sail off to sea, but they would come back on the same day to their home bases and spend the night in their homes. That's no longer the case,” Guvenc says. “The Turkish navy is evolving into a major regional power.” Turkey’s military presence abroad includes bases in Qatar, Libya and Somalia, with naval agreements in place. Ankara claims its expansion addresses growing threats around the region. “When you look at the conflicts in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, they are all around Turkey,” said Mesut Casin, a Turkish presidential adviser and professor at Yeditepe University. He also pointed to Turkey’s NATO role: “The naval modernisation benefits NATO and the security of Western allies, especially in terms of oil and navigation security.” Ankara has been quick to flex its new naval muscles. Four years ago, Turkish warships allegedly targeted a French NATO vessel enforcing an arms embargo on Libya. Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals Regional concerns Greece, with longstanding territorial disputes with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean, has voiced particular concern. Israel, too, has raised alarms over Turkey’s naval growth, including military drones deployed in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus. “Some of Turkey’s naval moves, like the UAV base in Northern Cyprus, could be aimed at Israel,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "This doesn't mean again there will be a direct confrontation, but it does mean that it is something that the Israeli army has to calculate for." Greece is also modernising its navy in response to what it sees as the Turkish threat. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reaffirmed the need for a “deterrent power” against Turkey. Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Meanwhile, Israel's growing naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the deployment of advanced naval assets and joint military exercises with regional partners, is adding to Turkish concerns. "The Turkish military has begun to feel concerned about the deployment of its [Israel's] nuclear missile capable submarines in the Mediterranean," said naval expert Guvenc. “As long as they were in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean, it wasn’t a problem. But once they shifted to the Mediterranean, it became a potential threat.” Guvenc is warning that escalating regional suspicions risks spiraling out of control. “It’s a vicious circle. Turkey builds a new navy to address threats, and now its neighbours feel threatened by Turkey’s naval growth. This is how arms races start, and they don’t tend to end well.” Turkish shipyards are working at full capacity to meet the country’s growing naval demands. Analysts say this will likely only deepen fears and tensions with its neighbours.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Ankara this week, signalling the end to years of animosity with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders committed themselves to a new era of cooperation – but some observers question how long it will last. The Egyptian president received a full diplomatic reception, with military bands and horses parading the Egyptian flag through the streets of the Turkish capital on Wednesday. Erdogan did not hold back in welcoming a man he once dubbed a "brutal dictator", and signalled a new era of partnership between the two countries. "With our joint declaration, we confirmed our will to advance our cooperation in all fields, including industry, trade, defence, health, environment and energy," the Turkish president declared. String of bilateral agreements The two leaders signed no fewer than 17 agreements to deepen bilateral trade, diplomatic and military cooperation. The goal is to expand their annual commercial exchanges to over €13 billion in five years, from a little over €9 billion now. They also discussed their concerns linked to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the shared desire to see a ceasefire there – part of a wider trend of converging regional interests. Sisi's visit follows Erdogan's trip to Cairo in February, which resulted from years of efforts to mend damaged relations. Ankara and Cairo cut ties in 2013 after Sisi, then defence minister, ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi – Turkey's ally and part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendshipQuestion of Somaliland Despite the decade of estrangement, trade between the two countries never ceased: Turkey is Egypt's fifth-largest trading partner, while Egypt is Turkey's largest in Africa. With the Egyptian and Turkish economies in difficulty, the need to increase bilateral trade is seen as a powerful impetus towards rapprochement and a driving force for cooperation. It could also ease tension in oil-rich Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and where Cairo and Ankara back rival governments. Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila says that Libya has become an important arena for both countries. "Because the lines in the sand are so set – and each country has its sphere of influence – this has helped both countries realise that it's much more lucrative if they cooperate rather than fight each other," she told RFI. Sisi and Erdogan also discussed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway state of Somaliland, following reports that Egypt has started deploying weapons to Mogadishu. The deployment is part of Egypt's bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo claims seriously threatens vital water supplies from the Nile River. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in AfricaRivalry paused, not ended? However, analysts suggest Egypt could also be seeking to challenge Turkey's influence in Somalia – in which it has heavily invested – as well as complicating Ankara's efforts to mediate between the Somali and Ethiopian governments. Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, a professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, acknowledges the danger – but predicts Erdogan and Sisi will initially seek common ground. "Both Egypt and Turkey can cooperate in Somalia, especially in terms of security," she observes. "They can implement joint anti-terrorism initiatives. They can combine their efforts in development projects. They can involve themselves in political stabilisation initiatives, and so on. "But they can also compete with each other for a more significant role and influence in Somalia." For now, though, most experts seem to agree that with the spectre of a wider regional conflict and increasing economic pressures, Erdogan and Sisi are fully aware that cooperation, rather than rivalry, is in both their interests.

Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive. "We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said. "This constitutes notable progress." While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September. Controversial deal Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia. Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity. "Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs. "It’s the second-largest country in Africa. It’s a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it’s not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland." Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse. "It’s not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they’re under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said. "But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia." Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts. Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland dispute Deepening influence The situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet. Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara’s Social Sciences University said Turkey’s historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts. "Somalia has a very important place in Turkey’s Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia’s capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu. "But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces." Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Economic, military stakes Earlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones. Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region’s potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route. "There’s a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said. "It’s a region that has not...

Fears are rising that Azerbaijan and Armenia are entering an arms race, which could undermine US-backed peace talks and trigger a new conflict. Azerbaijan showcased its military might in a grand parade in Baku last year to celebrate its victory in recapturing the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from Armenian-backed forces. Azerbaijan, buoyed by its oil wealth, is continuing its aggressive rearmament programme, heavily relying on Turkey for military support. “The Turkish defence industry and Turkish military equipment will be providing further arms to protect Azerbaijan," predicts Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.” However, Bagci noted that Azerbaijan is also turning to another ally for advanced weaponry. “Israel is much better in this respect. Azerbaijan buys the highest technology from Israel, and Israel is providing it.” Turkish and Israeli arms played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's recent military successes, overwhelming Armenian-backed forces that relied on outdated Russian equipment. Armenia's response In response to its loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is also ramping up its military capabilities, with France leading the supply of new, sophisticated weaponry. Paris argues that this support helps Armenia shift its focus away from Russian reliance and towards Western alliances. Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence. “Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan," says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia. "The goal is to create deterrents to make any aggression against Armenia more costly. In the medium term, we aim for equality, and in the long term, superiority.” Stalled peace talks The rearmament comes amid stalled peace talks, with Baku concerned that Yerevan’s military buildup might indicate ambitions to retake Nagorno Karabakh. “The truth is our territory was under occupation, so we worry that in five, 10 years, Armenia will rearm its military, strengthen military capacities, and will come back,” warned Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Centre of Analysis of International Relations. Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence. “Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The goal is to create deterrents in the short run to make any aggression against Armenia far more costly than it has been in the past,” says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia. “Two is to create equality in the middle term and in the long term superiority. You can’t have any other goal when your country is constantly under threat, or attack is the only way to respond to it." Hacopian also notes: “The moment Armenia can defend itself, then the game is up because Ilham Aliyev is not going to risk a war that he is not guaranteed to win; Armenia rearming means he is not guaranteed to win a war which he means he won’t launch one.” However, Hacopian acknowledges that the coming year will be dangerous for the region as Yerevan seeks to close the military gap with Azerbaijan. "Next year is the year of living dangerously because next year is the last year that they can do a major aggression against Armenia without having to face the consequences because the gap is closing. Once it closes, the game will be up,” he says. Ongoing tensions Earlier this month, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire in a border skirmish, underscoring the ongoing tensions between the two nations. Both Baku and Yerevan insist their military enhancements are for defensive purposes. However, Bagci warns that the arms race is turning the region into a potential flashpoint. “Armenia and Azerbaijan are like two children; they play with fire, and the house is burning, and everybody is asking the big powers why the house is burning and who has done it. They have done it together,” he says. Despite their rearmament, both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim to remain...