The Downballot

Tuesday night was a massive triumph for the forces of democracy, from coast to coast and up and down the ballot. We're recapping all of the action in this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, starting with Wisconsin's marquee race for the state Supreme Court and the very real possibility that Elon Musk's aggressive intrusion into the contest wound up helping Susan Crawford preserve liberals' narrow majority. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the huge Democratic overperformances in two ruby-red Florida House districts, which show that Republicans were right to fear losing Elise Stefanik's seat in a special election. But that's not all: Democrats racked up big wins in a wide range of other races (Omaha! Aurora! Winnebago!), all of which the Davids recap. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a long-awaited election that will determine control of the state Supreme Court. The Davids also delve into the world of digital advertising with Mark Jablonowski, an Obama veteran and the president of DSPolitical. Jablonowski reveals the inner workings of online ads, which have become an increasingly important part of every modern campaign. He specifically explains how even the smallest campaigns he works with can target voters in sophisticated ways to urge them to the polls—a roster that includes none other than James Malone. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Chuck Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who stood with him have faced unprecedented backlash for caving to Republicans on their budget bill last Friday, so we're pulling out our Geiger counters and assessing the fallout on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Schumer's biggest failure was his hamfisted execution of an already questionable strategy. But it's not just the lingering anger Democrats need to worry about: Similar fights are coming up in Congress later this year, and they need to be much better prepared next time. The Davids also dive into a new plan from Kansas Republicans to bend the state Supreme Court to their will—and warn that, if next year's vote on the GOP's amendment turns into another referendum on abortion, it's likely doomed. They also highlight why a burgeoning effort in New Hampshire to finally end the state's last-in-the-nation primary is a very good thing, and one that other stragglers should follow. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats in Congress are in the middle of an extraordinary battle over government funding, but if they fail to heed their base and stand up to Republicans, the electoral impact could be dramatic—though not in a way they're accustomed to. This week on The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of this shutdown fight and explain why Democrats have little reason to worry it will affect next year's general election but should be very concerned about their own primaries. The Davids also welcome back Daily Kos Elections alum Matt Booker, who's now a pollster at Change Research. Matt catches us up on the state of polls today and tells us why the data the public sees is just the tip of the polling iceberg. We also discuss the shockingly wide-open race for governor in Matt's home state of New Jersey and pour one out for 538, an invaluable site whose loss will be profoundly felt by anyone interested in elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Federal workers who've gotten smashed by Elon Musk's wrecking ball cut a sympathetic figure and have a compelling story to tell—and they could prove to be Democrats' best candidates. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss why Andrew Lennox, a Marine veteran fired from the VA, is likely just the first of many former government employees whose righteous fury Republican office-holders will feel first-hand at the ballot box. The Davids also welcome on Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa for a deep dive into Lone Star politics. Plesa, who represents one of just a handful of competitive House seats in the state, explains how Democrats, despite being in the minority, have forged alliances with establishment Republicans to keep the far-right at bay. She also previews the looming fight over school vouchers and tells us what to look for in next year's elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats have a lot of options when deciding how to oppose Donald Trump—and some of them are making the wrong choices. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we make a case study out of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, whose recent outburst at constituents who exhorted him to more forcefully resist Trump could net him a primary challenge. But it's not just Lynch: Anger among Democratic voters and activists is intense, and it could lead to a widespread insurgency that reshapes the party, much as the tea party movement did with the GOP in 2010. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on several races where big news has broken over the last week, including Mitch McConnell's long-awaited retirement announcement—and why would-be Republican successors want nothing to do with him. Also on tap are the open governor's seats in Florida and Ohio, where major Trump-backed candidates just jumped in. And finally, we wrap up with a look at the recent German elections and what they mean for the country's relations with the U.S. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, and Aaron Rupar, publisher of Public Notice, held their monthly live chat on Thursday to share their insights on some of the most important stories in American politics, including: * Why Trump calling himself “king” matters—and how New York is fighting back. * What it actually means to have a constitutional crisis, and why we’re in one already. * Why Democrats in Congress should not bail out Republicans on any votes, and much more. David and Aaron also took a wide range of questions from those who participated live. If you missed the event, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript. Tune in at 2 PM ET on the second Thursday of each month to join in the discussion and fire away with your questions! Our next event will take place on March 14. You can participate by downloading the free Substack app or by clicking the link in the email we send out when we go live. If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below: And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below: Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The most important election between now and November will take place on April 1 in Wisconsin, when liberals will defend their hard-won majority on the state Supreme Court. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is veteran Badger State strategist Joe Zepecki, who breaks down every aspect of the race for us: who the candidates are, what kind of attack ads each side is running, and how Elon Musk's seven-figure cash infusion threatens to end Democrats' financial dominance. Plus, why you'll want to keep an eye on Green Bay as the bellwether on election night. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Minnesota Senate race, which was just transformed by Democrat Tina Smith's retirement. They explain why, contrary to conventional wisdom, retirements can actually be a good thing and discuss the troubles the GOP is likely to have in recruiting a top-shelf candidate. As if to make their point, one of the strongest possible Republicans they mention, Rep. Pete Stauber, announced he wouldn't run just after the Davids finished recording! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Dave Weigel's ubiquitous coverage of elections has been indispensable reading for years, so it's our pleasure to welcome him as our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Dave, a veteran reporter now at Semafor, details how his attention to grassroots politics has helped him build unusual levels of trust with so many sources on both sides of the aisle. He also offers a thoughtful guide to handling the news onslaught that's accompanied the second Trump era and explains why races for party chair—whether of the DNC or RNC—seldom bring ideological shifts. The two other Davids—co-hosts Nir and Beard, of course—dive into the wreckage in New York City, where a letter from Trump's Justice Department letting Mayor Eric Adams off the hook has blown up all semblance of the rule of law. But if there's any recompense, it's that Adams' political career looks just as doomed now as it did a week ago. They also catch listeners up on the latest regarding a New York special election and the resolution of a long power struggle in the Minnesota House. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

A special election will soon be underway to succeed Republican Elise Stefanik after she’s confirmed as ambassador to the United Nations, but New York Democrats are considering delaying it from April to June—or possibly even later. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay break down the implications of Empire State Democrats finding a backbone. We also discuss big decisions by potential candidates in Michigan and Ohio, which will have both Senate and governor races next year. We’re also talking to Campaign Legal Center Executive Director Adav Noti for an update on the state of campaign finance in 2024—and it’s not great! We discuss how Citizens United and the appointment of an anti-enforcement Democratic commissioner on the FEC led to the Wild West of campaign finance we know today. However, we also look at some positive laws and changes at the state level and discuss how reform could move forward at the federal level in the future. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

It's only January, but it's been a hell of a week for downballot news, starting with a massive Democratic upset in an Iowa special election. We're covering the astonishing result and all its implications in depth on the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, including what it might mean for upcoming races like the pivotal April 1 showdown for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Michigan Senate race, which was just scrambled by Gary Peters' surprise retirement, and the contest for governor in Arizona, where a far-right congressman's bid could be music to Democratic ears. They wrap up with two new state Supreme Court rulings: one positive in Minnesota, and one very troubling in North Carolina for anyone who believes in democracy. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Our guest this week on The Downballot podcast is Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, who tells us all about the importance of the job—and about his plans for electing more folks like him as the new chair of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. These number-twos hold many additional roles, whether as tie-breakers in legislatures, state election administrators, and more. Davis highlights top races in 2025 and 2026, including Arizona, which will elect its first lieutenant governor ever next year. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a new effort by Virginia Democrats to pass amendments enshrining abortion, same-sex marriage, and voting rights into the state constitution, illustrating how states will once again be the central battlefront for protecting democracy in the second Trump era. And they explain why new Senate appointments in Ohio and Florida could yield messy GOP primaries—and a Democratic opportunity. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The Minnesota House wound up evenly tied after the November elections, but Republicans say they're entitled to run the chamber and pick a speaker. We're unpacking this bizarre turn of events on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, an ongoing saga that's seen Democrats respond by playing hardball and walking out to deny the GOP a quorum. Will the courts step in, or will they leave lawmakers to resolve the deadlock themselves? It's all unfolding as we speak. We're also talking to data journalist Derek Willis, whose work collecting detailed election results across the country is near and dear to our nerdy hearts. Willis notes that this is a particularly American problem—most other countries centralize their election data—and explains the often-painful process for gathering results, which can even involve deciphering handwritten numbers. But the efforts yield critical insights into our democracy, so if you'd like to get involved, be sure to check out the all-volunteer Open Elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, and Aaron Rupar, publisher of Public Notice, held their monthly live chat on Thursday to share their insights on some of the most important stories in American politics, including: * Why Donald Trump’s dangerous talk of invading Greenland and Panama shouldn’t distract us from the upcoming fights over his atrocious cabinet nominees * How Democrats should handle Trump’s deranged lies about the California wildfires, and why a bona fide progressive media is so critical * Big special election wins for Democrats in Virginia that saw them hold their one-seat majorities in the legislature—and what they might mean for 2025 and 2026 David and Aaron also took a variety of questions from those who participated live. If you missed the event, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript. Tune in at 2 PM ET on the second Thursday of each month to join in the discussion and fire away with your questions! Our next event will take place on Feb. 13. You’ll need the free Substack app to participate. If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below: And if you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below: Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The Downballot podcast is back from our break, and already we've got election results to discuss on this week's show! Democrats in Virginia started the year off right with solid wins in two special elections that allowed them to retain their narrow majorities in both houses of the state legislature while Republicans actually underperformed in a third race. And of course, North Carolina is once again top of mind as Republicans move forward with a plan to overturn the results of last year's race for the state Supreme Court—even though two recounts confirmed that Democrats won. We're also digging into the wild situation in the Minnesota House, where Democrats are threatening a walkout if Republicans refuse to accept the power-sharing deal the parties began hammering out after the chamber wound up tied following the November elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

We are delighted to wrap up the year with our presentation of the Second Annual Downballot Awards! We honor both the highlights and the lowlights of a wild election cycle. Who will take home the prize for Most Embarrassing Use of AI? Least Impactful Revenge Tour? Most Humiliating Fall from Grace? But it's not just razzies: Tune in to learn who won Most Impressive Overperformance, the Iron Bladder Award, and the top accolade, Best Campaign! The most important honor, though, goes to you, our listeners, for your steadfast support all year long. We could not do this without you. We are truly grateful. As promised, here's a link to the winner of our Best Ad and Worst Ad awards. And if you'd like to contribute to our end-of-year fundraiser on ActBlue, just click here. Thank you! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

It's been a good news/bad news week for Democrats and democracy in North Carolina, so we're diving deep into the muck to explain it all on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. A second recount upheld Democrat Allison Riggs' victory in the ultra-close race for the state Supreme Court, and officials threw out challenges from her Republican opponent seeking to invalidate some 60,000 ballots. But the GOP also overrode Gov. Roy Cooper's veto to pass an obscene power grab that's as breathtaking as it is blatant. Just one example: They're moving the board of elections from the governor to the state auditor. Why? Simply because Democrats won the former office last month while Republicans won the latter. The rest of the bill is even more atrocious. Co-hosts David Beard and David Nir will tell you all about it. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The last unresolved House race of 2024 is finally in the books, giving Democrats a victory that will narrow the GOP's already precarious margin even further. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of Republicans' tiny majority, which will either result in gridlock or further dependence on Democratic votes. The Davids also discuss Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan's decision to abandon the Democratic Party and run for governor as an independent—though it might not prove to be a catastrophe for Democrats.Joining us for our deep dive this week is Jessica Mackler, president of EMILYs List, a political mainstay that's been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for nearly 40 years. Mackler highlights endorsees who overperformed to win tough races, like Michigan's Elissa Slotkin, while noting that vocal support for abortion rights is only one part of a winning campaign. She also looks toward upcoming races EMILYs is focused on and shares some thoughts on top-shelf candidates who could run again after falling just short in 2024. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

In a stunning turn of events almost two weeks after Election Day, Democrat Allison Riggs surged to a narrow lead in her bid for a full term on the North Carolina Supreme Court after trailing by as many as 10,000 votes. David Nir and David Beard discuss this dramatic turnaround on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—but caution that legal challenges before a far-right judiciary await. Please consider supporting The Downballot with a paid subscription today. The Davids also talk to one of their favorite congressional reporters, Abby Livingston of Puck News, who shares her views on the gap between Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP ticket in this year's elections. Was it a special "Trump sauce" or candidate quality that saw them diverge? The answer might be both! Livingston also pulls back the curtain on the anonymous Democratic "bedwetters" who constantly fret to reporters, explaining that most are at least one step removed from any actual campaigns. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

While the House was just called for Republicans, the GOP's majority will be incredibly slender—and it's about to get worse. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into two uncalled races that could flip to Democrats, further narrowing the GOP's advantage. But worse still is Donald Trump, who's been raiding the House for his cabinet, prompting Mike Johnson to beg him to stop. So what did Trump do? Why, he nominated Matt Gaetz for attorney general, of course. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe