Odd Lots

Regardless of your political ideology, it's easy to agree that government should work well; that it should be able to hire talented officials, and build things in a timely, cost-effective manner. Of course, what that means in practice is open for debate, and different people will have different priorities. But at the moment, there are reasons to believe the public sector isn't operating optimally. Things move incredibly slow in many cases. Software systems are often old and extremely costly, and don't do a good job serving the public's needs. It can be extremely difficult to bring on the best workers, even setting aside questions about public sector salaries. Jennifer Pahlka is the author of Recoding America, and was the founder of Code for America. She has also served as the US Deputy Chief CTO and has seen how much of government operates up close. We talk to her about what she's seen, how waste happens, how government operations get bogged down by inertia, and why simply identifying things that are going wrong isn't enough to change them. She talks to us about Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, and why a major jolt may be necessary to get better results. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What does it mean for content creators to “go onchain?” We’ll learn how this movement to take financial power back from closed-off social media platforms could give creators a kind of freedom that they’ve struggled to hold onto for centuries. This episode is sponsored by Coinbase. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the biggest stories in markets right now is the huge selloff in government bonds. And we're not just talking about the US here. The UK is seeing multi-year highs in long-end yields. So is Japan. And of course, the US 10-year Treasury is close to its highest level in a year, despite the recent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. So what's going on? Is it just about inflation and growth expectations or is there more to it? On this episode, we speak to Jay Barry, head of global rates strategy at JPMorgan Securities, who breaks it all down and gives us his estimate of where fair value now stands. Read More: Fed’s Barkin Says Term Premium Moving Long Rates, Not Inflation See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Utilities in the US have a couple big jobs to do. On the one hand, they need to deliver affordable and reliable power to their customers. On the other hand, they also need to maintain and upgrade huge amounts of fixed infrastructure. Balancing those two jobs is getting more complicated thanks to America's aging electricity grid and the shift towards renewables. So how are big utilities squaring those two objectives? How do they decide how much money they need to fund new capital investment? How do they decide which customer pays what rate? And what role do regulators play in all these discussions? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lon Huber, senior vice president of pricing and customer solutions at Duke Energy, one of the largest utilities in the US. We talk about why the ramp-up in renewable energy hasn't led to lower electricity prices for everyone, why fuel is ultimately the most marginal cost of electricity generation, and how utilities are handling booming demand from data centers. Read More: AI Needs So Much Power, It's Making Yours Worse UK Set to Spend £1.8 Billion as Wind Power Overwhelms Grid Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you look at various surveys, Americans feel grim about the state of the economy. But even outside of the economy itself, you see negative readings for faith in various American institutions. Pessimism seems to be in right now, at least on a societal level. But it wasn't always this way. In the 1990s, we were between the Cold War and the War on Terror. The stock market boomed through much of the decade. Optimism was in. So what was that like, and then how did it come to an abrupt end in the early years of the new millennium? On this episode, we speak to Colette Shade, author of the new book Y2K: How the 2000s Became Everything, about this time period in America, what stood out, and what is relevant today. Related reading: Author of 'Dow 36,000' Book on Lessons Learned Since the 1999 Prediction Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the US right now, there is a lot of talk about a so-called "nuclear revival." But it remains to be seen whether we'll see a meaningful uptick in actual power generation, from either new reactors, or old reactors getting a restart. Meanwhile, in China, nuclear construction is full steam ahead. In the last decade, China has built 37 nuclear reactors, and several more are coming down the pipe. So what does it take to build nuclear at scale? On this episode, we speak to David Fishman, a China-based energy analyst at The Lantau Group. He walks us through all the elements of the country's nuclear success, from financing to manufacturing to its domestic power markets. We also discuss what, if any, lessons could be applied elsewhere. Previously: What’s Next for Uranium After the Big Price Surge Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As is becoming something of an annual tradition here, we recently asked Odd Lots listeners to send in any questions they have about the show to Tracy and Joe, via voice memo. We took as many as we could, and answered questions on all kinds of things, ranging from our favorite economists to career advice to changes in how the news media operates. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As 2024 comes to an end, Tracy and Joe once again look back at the year that was in Odd Lots. On this final episode of the year, we revisit 10 of the most fascinating, surprising and unforgettable facts and ideas that came up on the show in the last 12 months, talking about everything from chicken prices to nickel mining to private finance. Click here to revisit these earlier 10 episodes: Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in November, we released our series called Beak Capitalism, which took a look at the entire US economy through the lens of chicken. Then we went on the Money Stuff podcast, hosted by Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld, to talk about our work. Here is a replay of that conversation, for those who missed it. You can subscribe to the Money Stuff podcast here. You can listen to Beak Capitalism here, here, and here. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll unlock deep reporting, data and analysis from reporters around the world, plus access to a suite of subscriber-only newsletters. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Biden administration made energy and climate a centerpiece of its administration, most notably through the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same time, we’ve seen a boom in US oil and gas production the last four years, alongside the novel use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a price and supply stabilization tool. Meanwhile, investments in batteries and other clean technologies have been framed as crucial from the perspective of strategic and economic competition with China. So what was accomplished? And what will persist after the Trump administration comes into office? On this episode, we speak with US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm about her transformation of the department, and how she thinks about the future of existing energy strategies and policies under Trump. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points, but simultaneously signaled a slower pace of cuts for next year. The guidance surprised markets and sparked a selloff in both stocks and bonds as traders adjusted to the new forecast. So what made the Fed change its stance? And where do the balance of risks to the economy lie right now? In this episode, we speak with Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly about how she's viewing the outlook for both inflation and the labor market. We also talk about the impact of AI on productivity, and how she's thinking about the potential impact of new policies from the incoming Trump administration. Read More: Fed’s Daly Says She’s ‘Very Comfortable’ With Two 2025 Rate Cuts Powell Signals Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But it also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, and sees just two more cuts next year. The markets reacted violently to it, with the major measures posting their worst day in a long time. What's more, there was nowhere to hide. Bonds and gold also sold off, alongside equities. So what's going on now? And what does this mean for portfolio construction? On this episode, we speak with Jim Caron, chief investment officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We talked about why the market reacted as sharply as it did, and how to think about next year, given highly concentrated markets, uncertain macro, and the difficulty in finding diversifying instruments. Read More: Powell Says Future Cuts Would Require Fresh Inflation Progress Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world of startup investing has undergone massive transformations amid the AI boom, changing capital markets, and an intense degree of competition from new entrants into the space. So what does it take to succeed in venture capital? How does an investor know if they have what it takes? On this episode, recorded in San Francisco, we speak with Nina Achadjian, a partner at Index Ventures. She talks about her career, how she differentiates herself from other investors, and the sectors she's most excited about, including what areas are poised to benefit from AI. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the minor culture wars in America has to do with electric stoves. To some, they're more energy efficient and better for air quality. To others, electric stove requirements represent government overreach, and a loss of freedom to use a gas range. Impulse Labs wants to change the whole conversation. The company produces an induction stove — very different than most electric stoves — that it claims can not only produce superior food, but can also be a catalyst for electrification, thanks to its built-in battery storage. On this episode, we visited the Impulse offices in San Francisco to try out the stove ourselves and talk to CEO Sam D'Amico about the company's vision. We also discuss how a stove maker based in the US thinks about the grid, tariffs, buying batteries, and other challenges that come with selling a physical consumer product. Read More: How Did Gas Stoves Ignite a Culture War? Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geothermal is a promising technology to provide clean, low-cost, baseload power to the electricity grid. It works by getting heat from deep in the ground, using technology that is similar to that used in fracking. Despite this potential, however, geothermal still remains a very small percentage of the US power mix. So what will it take for it to scale up? One big challenge is the core problem of financing. Firms need customers in order to get financing. But customers don't want to sign up for projects unless firms can finance them and get them built. On this episode, recorded live onstage at the Department of Energy's Deploy24 conference in Washington DC, we speak with Tim Latimer, the founder and CEO of geothermal company Fervo Energy. Tim was previously in the fracking industry. He explained to us how geothermal works, what's being built, and what it will take from private and public actors in order to scale it up. Read More: A Green Reason to Drill, Baby, Drill: Renewable Energy That’s Always On Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You can do a lot of things with the click of a button nowadays. You can get insurance, open a bank account, or trade 347 different stocks all at once via an ETF. But one thing you definitely can't do via a single click, is refinance your mortgage. In fact, securing a mortgage still requires reams of paperwork -- a lot of which has to be physically mailed to all the different parties involved. So why is mortgage finance stuck in the stone age? In this episode we speak with Mike Yu, co-founder and CEO of Vesta, about why we don't have one-click mortgages refis. He describes how a mix of clunky legacy IT systems and regulation have combined to make mortgage finance a technological laggard. Read More: US Home-Purchase Applications Rise to Highest Since February Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI software and the hardware that enables it have been hugely popular investments this year. But there have still been limiting factors on the sector, including a shortage of compute to power so many new start-ups. Investors don't want to finance companies that lack a signed contract for compute, and compute providers don't want to sign contracts for startups that haven't already secured funding. Now Magnetar, a hedge fund which started its first ever venture capital fund earlier this year, is trying to solve this "chicken and egg" problem by offering compute in exchange for equity. Magnetar was an early investor in the AI space, partnering with Coreweave and recently helping the hyperscaler to raise $7.5 billion. On this episode, we speak with Jim Prusko, partner and senior portfolio manager on Magnetar's alternative credit and fixed income team, about why the hedge fund is getting into venture capital and some of the new ways they're deploying money in the space. Read More: Magnetar Starts First-Ever Venture Fund, Targets Generative AI Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today, and many things look very different. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore. And computing power has become a scarce resource, particularly when it comes to AI. So how do things look different today from the perspective of a veteran venture capitalist? In this episode, recorded live in San Francisco in November, we speak to Ethan Kurzweil, a founder and managing partner at the new VC firm Chemistry. Ethan spent years at Bessemer Venture Partners, where he was involved in numerous software deals. He talks to us about his strategy for the new fund, the case for starting a small firm, what technologies excite him most right now, and the general landscape for seed-stage investing. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, investors have relied on the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. The idea behind this was simple: bonds tend to go up when stocks go down, so the two things should act as a natural hedge. But when inflation spiked in 2022 and 2023, the 60/40 portfolio performed terribly and bonds failed to act as a safety cushion. In this episode, we speak with Nouriel Roubini, chief economist and portfolio manager of the new Atlas America Fund, an ETF that is trying to create a new type of safe asset that can withstand big risks, including stagflation, deficits, and de-dollarization. We also talk about the outlook for the US economy in 2025, and the big risks that the chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates sees on the horizon. Read more: Roubini Launches Treasury-Alternative ETF to Ride Trump-Era Risk Crypto Critic Nouriel Roubini Is Working on a Tokenized Dollar Replacement Become a Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscriber using our special intro offer at Bloomberg Subscriptions | Digital, All Access, Corporate & Student . You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new administration is promising major policy changes in areas like tariffs, immigration, and the size and scope of government. But even beyond that, there is near-term uncertainty over the outlook for the labor market and inflation. Furthermore, we're in an era of high stock valuations, high market concentration, and the AI wildcard. So in light of all this, we talked to Jan Hatzius, the Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research, and David Kostin, Goldman's top equity strategist, about what they're looking for in the year ahead. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.