Odd Lots

The Trump administration has come into office with big ambitions to lower the size of the US deficit. So far, a number of small items have been identified as possible waste. But to meaningfully bend the curve on spending, there's widespread agreement that we'd have to look at things like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and defense. This is hard stuff to cut and it's something that governments around the world have long struggled with. How do you pull back on a prior commitment that your constituency has come to expect? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Firtz Bartel, an assistant professor of international affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M. He is also the author of the recent book The Triumph of Broken Promises, which examines the simultaneous economic crisis in the US, UK, and Soviet Union during the 1970s, and how each country was forced economically to essentially "break promises." We talk about what it takes politically to maintain domestic credibility for any government while undergoing such wrenching choices, and why some systems are better suited for it than others. Read More: Trump Tax Cuts’ Cost Estimated at $5 Trillion to $11 Trillion Judge Temporarily Halts Trump, Musk Federal Worker ‘Buyout’ Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a pretty widespread recognition that the EU is facing a bunch of economic challenges right now. Growth has been slowing and, as in many places, there's been post-pandemic inflation. But there are other issues too, including a sense that Europe is falling behind when it comes to key technologies like AI and semiconductors. There's also an ongoing energy crisis and the recent threat of tariffs from the US. So how is the European Central Bank evaluating and responding to these cyclical and structural challenges? How do one-off risks affect the direction of monetary policy? We speak with Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, about how the central bank is thinking about all these things. Read More: Trump’s Naughty List Could Put EU Cars, Machinery in Tariff Crosshairs ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we saw shares of software maker Palantir soar after reporting earnings and describing demand for AI as being "untamed." But what does Palantir do, and what do they actually sell to the federal government? More importantly, how does the government actually spend money on things related to security and national defense? Last year, Palantir's CTO Shyam Sankar published a document called "The Defense Reformation," containing 18 theses about arms procurement and how it should be changed. We talk to him about the history of US defense spending, and his vision for creating a more competitive, advanced environment for the US defense sector. Read More: Palantir Jumps Most in Year As ‘Untamed’ Demand Bolsters Outlook Trump’s Gaza Takeover Gets Israeli Approval, Global Scorn Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gained access to a unit within the Treasury Department called the Bureau of Fiscal Service. But what does this unit actually do? How critical of a role does it play in the operations of government, and potentially, financial markets? On this episode, we speak with Nathan Tankus, the author of the Notes On The Crises newsletter. He explains both the technical aspect of this office, as well as the legal questions surrounding impoundment and the ability of the executive branch to cut off payments that have been previously authorized by Congress. We also talk about the operational risks and the potential disaster scenario should this system — which has been built in COBOL over decades — go down. Read More: US Treasury Brings In Two Members From Musk’s DOGE Team Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was following through with his plan for aggressive tariffs. Imports from Canada and Mexico will now be hit with a 25% tariff, while China will get a 10% tariff. Although aggressive action was promised during the campaign, the news still rattled global financial markets, sending futures tumbling and the dollar spiking. Then, on Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that after a discussion with Trump, the tariffs aimed at her country would be delayed by a month. Meanwhile, more talks with Canada and China are expected. So what exactly are the economics of such tariffs? Are they inflationary? Who pays for them? And what are the implications of these ongoing threats? On this episode, we speak with Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, who answers all of our questions on the still developing news and how things might play out. Read More: How Trump’s Tariffs Aim a Wrecking Ball at the Economy of the Americas Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marko Kolanovic was one of the biggest names in markets, earning the nickname 'Gandalf' for some eerily prescient calls over the years. But last July he left his role as JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, after missing out on a pretty epic rally. Since then, stocks have climbed higher with valuations increasingly stretched. So what does Marko think of the market now? In this episode we talk about his outlook the market, the impact of AI including the new DeepSeek model out of China, plus his own research and analysis techniques. Read more: Kolanovic on the Canary in the Coal Mine for Higher Energy Prices Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows by now that MicroStrategy looks a lot like a giant Bitcoin ETF. Its founder, Michael Saylor, is a huge supporter of the cryptocurrency and his company has been snapping up billions of dollars worth of the coins. The strategy has so far proved successful. In fact, MicroStrategy is trading at a market cap that's worth more than the value of its entire Bitcoin portfolio. How does this happen? And how long can it keep going? In this episode, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion's Matt Levine. We talk to him about how MicroStrategy has created a sort of "perpetual motion machine" of investment and how the strategy is starting to expand to other companies, too. Money Stuff: Crypto Perpetual Motion Machines Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we've seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we're not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike. Read More: LA’s Backyard-Home Boom Offers Wildfire-Hit Residents New Option US Housing Starts Top All Forecasts on Multifamily Construction Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Monday, the stock market tanked, seemingly in reaction to the emergence of DeepSeek, an open source AI model developed in China. Nvidia, the semiconductor giant that has been the largest winner of the AI boom, erased $589 billion in market cap, for the biggest one-day wipeout in US stock-market history. Other chipmakers and big tech giants also swooned. So how did DeepSeek do it? Is it a big threat to the American AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic? What does this say about export restrictions on US chips? On this special emergency session of the podcast, we spoke with Zvi Mowshowitz, an AI expert who authors the excellent Substack, Don’t Worry About the Vase. He answered all our questions and more to help understand what it means. Read more: AI-Fueled Stock Rally Dealt $1 Trillion Blow by Chinese Upstart World’s Richest People Lose $108 Billion After DeepSeek Selloff Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The run-up in Big Tech stocks and all the hype over AI has put a bunch of investors on "bubble watch." One of those is Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management. Howard is one of the most famous credit investors in the world, but he has experience in stock market bubbles too. Back in early 2000 — right before the Nasdaq peaked — he pointed out the frothiness in equities in a famous note titled "Bubble.com." So how does he actually spot a market bubble? How does a bubble differ from a bull run? And what is he seeing right now? We chat with Howard about all these things, including his experiences both in 2000 and during the 2008 subprime crisis. Read More: Can Howard Marks Spot a Stock Bubble Twice? Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a lot of talk right now about concentration risk in US equities. For instance, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 currently account for 38% of the total index, compared to just 17.5% a decade ago. And all the big winners have been tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, Meta, etc., prompting questions about whether investors are getting overly-enthused about AI. For some, it's also bringing back memories of the dotcom bubble. So just how concentrated is the US stock market right now? What exactly is "concentration risk" anyway? What does this trend say about the power of benchmark index providers like S&P? And -- crucially -- are market participants doing anything about it? In this episode we speak with Kevin Muir, a.k.a. the Macro Tourist, about why he thinks the market is now at "peak concentration," and what could change to reduce Big Tech's dominance. Read more: Index Providers Rule the World—For Now, at Least Nvidia and Five Tech Giants Now Command 30% of the S&P 500 Index Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In theory, all of this AI spending has to deliver some kind of return. Companies (or other end users) will have to get tangible value from its outputs in order to justify the billions spent on research, chips, energy, and more. So what's actually happening at the corporate level? On this episode, we speak with Eric Glyman, who is the co-founder and CEO of Ramp, which helps corporations manage their expenses. As such, he has front row visibility in terms of what's actually being spent and who is actually getting the money. We talk about trends he's seeing in terms of spending going toward companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as how AI tech is affecting the operations of his own business. Read More: SoftBank Shares Soar as Masayoshi Son’s AI Vision Coalesces Trump Pushes to Make US an AI Superpower, With Fewer Guardrails Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tariffs, crypto, deregulation, tax cuts, protectionism, are just some of the things back on the table when Donald Trump returns to the Presidency. To help you plan for Trump's singular approach to economics, Bloomberg presents Trumponomics, a weekly podcast focused on the Trump administration's economic policies and plans. Editorial head of government and economics Stephanie Flanders will be joined each week by reporters in Washington D.C. and Wall Street to examine how Trump's policies are shaping the global economy and what on earth is going to happen next. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all know that the new Trump administration is likely to be more friendly to the crypto industry than the Biden administration was. And we know that the industry has generally been rather supportive and enthusiastic about the change at the White House. But what's actually coming next? What does being favorable to the industry really look like in practice? What does the crypto industry actually want to see in terms of changing regulations under a new administration? On this episode, we speak with Austin Campbell, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business and the CEO of stablecoin company WSPN USA about the possibilities ahead, and what moves the industry is hoping to see from the SEC and bank regulators.00 Read More: Trump Plans to Designate Cryptocurrency as a National Priority Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Odd Lots has been exploring the history of the eurodollar market in a special three-part series hosted by Columbia Law School's Lev Menand and the New York Fed's Josh Younger. But why should we care about the origins of this market at all? How do eurodollars fit into the global financial system right now? And what role do they play in maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status? In this episode, we bring back Lev to give an update on the modern eurodollar market. We discuss why some policymakers have been sounding the alarm and whether stablecoins are the new eurodollars. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. By the 1970s, eurodollars are hitting the headlines — and not in a good way. While this new form of money initially acted as a pressure valve for the Bretton Woods system, many now think the eurodollar market has spun out of control. What happens next — including Richard Nixon's decision to take the US off the gold standard — will not only shape the ultimate contours of today's eurodollar market, but will also give us the modern financial system itself. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. Read More: US Aims to Tighten Flow of TSMC and Samsung Chips to China Russian Crude Oil Piles Up Near Chinese Coast After US Sanctions Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. As we enter the turbulent 1960s, the eurodollar market has grown big enough to catch the eye of regulators. The Federal Reserve mounts a fact-finding mission to better explore this rapidly-expanding market. And soon, policymakers have to decide just how helpful eurodollars can be when it comes to solidifying and expanding the greenback's role in international finance at a time when the gold-backed dollar is about to be put under massive pressure. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. Read more: Trump Team Studies Gradual Tariff Hikes Under Emergency Powers Canadian Ambassador Warns of ‘Tit-For-Tat’ Retaliation to US Tariffs Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At more than $10 trillion outstanding, the eurodollar market is one of the biggest forms of shadow banking activity out there. It's also one of the most interesting markets in existence, allowing non-US banks to hold and lend offshore dollars that effectively sit outside of the Federal Reserve's control. But where did eurodollars actually come from? Why did the US allow these "shadow dollars" to exist at all? And what do eurodollars mean for the greenback's role in the global financial system? In this special three-part series, we look back at the hidden history of the eurodollar market. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. We start in the aftermath of World War II, when Europe is in the midst of an expensive reconstruction and the world is in the early throes of the Cold War. It's here that the eurodollar is born. Read more: Russia Sanctions Arm Trump for Talks With Putin Scholz Steps Up Criticism of Trump’s Expansionist Rhetoric Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Regardless of your political ideology, it's easy to agree that government should work well; that it should be able to hire talented officials, and build things in a timely, cost-effective manner. Of course, what that means in practice is open for debate, and different people will have different priorities. But at the moment, there are reasons to believe the public sector isn't operating optimally. Things move incredibly slow in many cases. Software systems are often old and extremely costly, and don't do a good job serving the public's needs. It can be extremely difficult to bring on the best workers, even setting aside questions about public sector salaries. Jennifer Pahlka is the author of Recoding America, and was the founder of Code for America. She has also served as the US Deputy Chief CTO and has seen how much of government operates up close. We talk to her about what she's seen, how waste happens, how government operations get bogged down by inertia, and why simply identifying things that are going wrong isn't enough to change them. She talks to us about Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, and why a major jolt may be necessary to get better results. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What does it mean for content creators to “go onchain?” We’ll learn how this movement to take financial power back from closed-off social media platforms could give creators a kind of freedom that they’ve struggled to hold onto for centuries. This episode is sponsored by Coinbase. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.