Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race. And of course, we spend some time looking at the model. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign. Read More at Bloomberg.com: https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. Further Reading: The Big Announcement More on Thomas Schelling More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. Further Reading: Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week. Further Reading: Charity Navigator More on Betsy Paluck’s research Willy Nelson’s discography Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move. Further Reading: Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned. Further Reading: A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!) For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports. Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that has been going around. Then, they are joined by World Series of Poker Main Event winner Jonathan Tamayo to discuss his win – and the controversy that surrounds it. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate. Further Reading: Why Biden Finally Quit from Politico Can Harris Beat Trump? from New York Magazine What a Kamala Harris Presidency Might Look Like from Semafor For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And they parse the latest in the Democrats’ intra-party fight over Biden. Also on the show: Nate’s day at jury duty is a case study in bad bluffs. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race. Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden. Also: An update from the Main Event of the World Series of Poker. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does. Further Reading: “Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin “CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN “Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: “The Leap” from Maria Konnikova “Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.