On Shifting Ground

100,000, that’s the estimated number of Protestant churches that will close in the U.S… not by 2050, but five years from now. What some scholars are calling “The Great De-churching” is already well under way, and the exodus is accelerating. This week, Ray Suarez speaks with Ryan Burge, professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, about why non-religious people and atheists are on the rise, and whether religion can still play a role in American society. Guest: Ryan Burge, professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

When bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites change over time and no longer respond to medicines, it makes infections harder to treat. This increases the risk of disease spread, severe illness, and death. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) leads to deaths, high health treatment costs, and economic and livelihood losses. Jennifer Cohn, Director, Global Access at Global Antibiotic R&D Partnership (GARDP), joins Ray Suarez to talk about the threat of AMR, and how to prevent it. Guest: Dr. Jennifer Cohn, Director, Global Access at Global Antibiotic R&D Partnership (GARDP) Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Third party candidate, Robert Kennedy, Jr., played an out-sized role in the 2024 presidential election. Trump said Kennedy would have “a big role in health care” if he were re-elected. And on November 14th, Trump announced RFK, Jr. would be nominated to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. More than 75 Nobel laureates have urged the US Senate to deny Kennedy, because they feel he would “put the public’s health in jeopardy.” If confirmed, how could Kennedy disrupt policy at HHS? This week, Ray speaks with Stanford’s Keith Humphreys about what RFK’s nomination means. Guest: Keith Humphreys, Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University Host: Ray Suarez  If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

One issue where President-elect Trump hammered home the differences between his plans and those of Kamala Harris was immigration. For a decade, the public has been increasingly worried about the number of people turning up at the southern border, the number of people seeking asylum in the US, and perhaps more quietly, about the changing face of America. Ray Suarez spoke with Ted Hesson, immigration reporter for Reuters, about how the Trump administration will handle immigration differently than Joe Biden. Then, he shares what he learned while reporting and writing We Are Home: Becoming American in the 21st Century, with veteran journalist Shereen Marisol Meraji. Guests: Ted Hesson, immigration reporter for Reuters Shereen Marisol Meraji, assistant professor at UC Berkeley’s School of Journalism Host: Ray Suarez, host, On Shifting Ground If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Donald Trump has successfully defied the political odds for almost a decade – largely because of his unpredictability on the campaign trail. But when it comes to his foreign policy, Trump is anything but unpredictable. If we take him at his word, some analysts believe Trump will inflame economic tensions with China, pull the US out of NATO, and hand Ukraine over to Vladimir Putin. Ian Bremmer on what to expect from Trump 2.0. Then, Ray Suarez sits down with Luxembourg Peace Prize laureates, Ali Abu Awwad, founding leader of the Taghyeer (Change) Palestinian National Nonviolence movement, and Dr. Gershon Baskin, the Middle East director of the International Communities Organization, to learn why they maintain hope for a peaceful, two-state solution. Guests: Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group Ali Abu Awwad, Palestinian peace activist and founder of the Taghyeer (Change) Palestinian National Nonviolence Movement Gershon Baskin, Israeli peace activist and the Middle East Director of the International Communities Organisation Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Diversity has often been seen as the United States’ defining strength – but today, some Americans see it as a threat. And this isn’t new. Throughout history, differences of religion, ethnicity, and origin have driven states around the world to war, violence, and extreme division. However, German-American political scientist Yascha Mounk says this isn’t the only path. On this week’s episode, we revisit our 2022 conversation with Mounk about his book, “The Great Experiment: Why Diverse Democracies Fall Apart And How They Can Endure." Two years after our original recording, we wonder whether it's still possible for diverse diverse democracies to succeed in an increasingly polarized political landscape. Guest: Yascha Mounk, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, contributing editor at The Atlantic and author of The Great Experiment: Why Diverse Democracies Fall Apart and How They Can Endure Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

In 2020, Latinos became the second largest ethnic voting group in the United States, and the fastest-growing segment of the swing states in the 2024 Presidential Election. The results of Election Day are clear: Donald Trump gained with working class Americans, and particularly Latino men, delivering him a decisive victory. Ray Suarez speaks with Mike Madrid, author of The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy, on why Democrats have been failing to connect with Latino voters for over a decade. Then, a post-election analysis from Commonwealth Club World Affairs’ “Week to Week” political roundtable. Guests: Mike Madrid, Co-Founder, The Lincoln Project; Author, The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy Tim Anaya, Vice President of Marketing and Communications, Pacific Research Institute Melissa Caen, Attorney; Political Journalist; Host, "Get Out the Bet" Joe Garofoli, Senior Political Writer, San Francisco Chronicle; Host, "It's All Political on Fifth and Mission" Hosts: Ray Suarez John Zipperer, Producer and Host, “Week to Week” Political Roundtable If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

According to Steve Schmidt, if you want to understand how the Democrats failed against Donald Trump in 2024, then you have to go back to Joe Biden not stepping aside earlier. In a candid, raw conversation, Ray Suarez speaks with Steve Schmidt, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, and host of The Warning, about how Donald Trump built a new multicultural, working class coalition, and why identity politics and big egos cost the Democrats. Guest: Steve Schmidt, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, and host of The Warning Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Election Day is over, and the results are clear: former president Donald Trump resoundingly defeated vice president Kamala Harris. We don’t have all the data, but a majority of US counties swung towards the Republicans. How did Trump gain new working class voters? And where does the Democratic Party go from here? Dante Chinni, director of MSU J-School’s American Communities Project, Rahul Bali, politics reporter at WABE, and Katie Meyer, government editor and reporter at Spotlight PA, breakdown the results. Guests: Dante Chinni, data and political journalist and director of the MSU J-School’s American Communities Project Rahul Bali, politics reporter at WABE Katie Meyer, government editor and reporter at Spotlight PA Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Donald Trump’s anti-establishment message has galvanized tech leaders across the US, including in former Democratic Party stronghold, Silicon Valley. This American Life’s Zoe Chace speaks with our producer, Mateo Schimpf, about what happened when Michigan Republicans took his advice and actually tried to buck the system. And tech billionaires have had their fingerprints all over the 2024 Presidential Election, but can we trust them? Journalist Kara Swisher joins Ray Suarez to discuss her newest book, “Burn Book,” and the psyche of Silicon Valley’s biggest players. Guests: Zoe Chace, Producer, This American Life Kara Swisher, author of “Burn Book,” and host of the podcast “On with Kara Swisher” Hosts: Mateo Schimpf  Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

During the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump's campaign has been fueled by some surprising supporters… leaders in big tech. According to recent reporting from The New York Times, tech billionaires like Elon Musk have built a “shadow campaign” to put Trump back in office. WIRED’s Steven Levy joins Ray Suarez to talk about why big dollar donations are causing a big divide in the once deeply blue Silicon Valley. Guest: Steven Levy, Journalist and Editor, WIRED Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

We're entering the final days of the 2024 presidential election, but a lot can change in a few weeks. Historically, several presidential contests have been upended in October. Coined the "October Surprise," for decades candidates have been tested at the finish line... and many have faltered. So what could trip up Harris or Trump? Ray Suarez hosts a panel featuring political strategist and pollster Rachel Bitecofer, Jonathan M. Metzl, author of Dying of Whiteness: How the Politics of Racial Resentment is Killing America's Heartland, and Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project. Guests: Rachel Bitecofer, author, political strategist and pollster Jonathan M. Metzl, author and director of the Department of Medicine, Health, and Society, at Vanderbilt University Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project Host: Ray Suarez If you value this programming, you can help support future ones just like it. Visit Commonwealth Club World Affairs to make a donation. Any amount helps, thank you!

Refugees in California are generally protected from federal deportation under sanctuary and safe haven laws, unless they've been incarcerated. And in 2022, after serving 25 years for murder, San Quentin State Prison parolee Phoeun You was turned over to ICE, and deported to Cambodia. In this episode, the story of Phoeun You: a man returned to a country he never knew. This episode was produced in partnership with KQED's The California Report Magazine podcast. Producer: Mateo Schimpf If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Immigration is once again a political football in the lead up to the 2024 Presidential Election, and while Congress stalled to address comprehensive border control measures, hundreds of thousands of migrants became pawns in a political game. The Washington Post's Eduardo Porter talks with Ray about how Mexico's former president used migrant flows to gain leverage in Washington D.C., and which US presidential candidate Mexico's new leadership prefers in the upcoming election. Guest: Eduardo Porter, columnist, The Washington Post Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

We're entering the final days of the 2024 presidential election, but a lot can change in a few weeks. Historically, several presidential contests have been upended in October. Coined the "October Surprise," for decades candidates have been tested at the finish line... and many have faltered. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump was trailing in the polls in October – as he is now with Kamala Harris – so could a last-second surprise ensure victory for Trump? Join us at Commonwealth Club - World Affairs on Tuesday, October 15th at Noon, for a special conversation with political strategist and pollster Rachel Bitecofer, Jonathan M. Metzl, author of Dying of Whiteness: How the Politics of Racial Resentment is Killing America's Heartland, and Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project.

Monday, October 7, 2024 marks the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israeli territory. For a while, Israel's response to the violence supplanted the war in Ukraine in the headlines, but as the months dragged on, attention had largely turned away from Gaza. That all changed in late-September when Israeli airstrikes in neighboring Lebanon killed seven high-ranking commanders and officials from Hezbollah, including the militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Ray Suarez speaks with Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about how Nasrallah’s has already escalated violence in the region… and may drag in Iran and the United States. Then, Vox’s Zack Beauchamp on what the first anniversary of October 7th will mean to Israel, the United States, and the final months of Joe Biden’s presidency. Guests: Zack Beauchamp, Senior Correspondent at Vox Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

After the two recent assassination attempts on former president Donald Trump, it’s clear the United States has a problem with political violence. But in our history, several would-be assassins have attacked sitting presidents, so is there something different about these Trump shooters… and this era of political grievance? Bruce Hoffman, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations, on whether we can break the string of political violence across the globe. Guest: Bruce Hoffman, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, Council on Foreign Relations Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

The recent assassination attempts on former president Donald Trump were surreal for many. It's been almost a half-century since a US president was shot, but attacks on a sitting president aren’t new – Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan survived assassination attempts. What’s different is that violence on elected officials used to be carried out by individuals with coherent political aims. In a recent article for The Atlantic, Tom Nichols argues that Donald Trump hasn’t carried himself like Gerald Ford, and speaks with Ray Suarez about why Trump is trying to use these assassination attempts for his political advantage. Guests: Tom Nichols, staff writer at The Atlantic and professor emeritus of national-security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College Host:  Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Anne Applebaum argues that autocracy is spreading to democratic states, and the reason why is that illiberalism is good international business. She warns the seeds of autocracy have already been sown in the United States, so how can we protect ourselves during another contentious presidential election season? Ray Suarez sits down with Anne Applebaum. Her latest book is Autocracy, Inc., and she has a new podcast, Autocracy in America. It’s co-hosted by British journalist Peter Pomerantsev. Do listen. Guest: Anne Applebaum, staff writer for The Atlantic and pulitzer-prize winning historian Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

In August, Ukrainian troops swept into Russia's Kursk region, and seized over 500 square miles of Russian territory. It’s the first time that Russia has been invaded since World War II. In Moscow, President Putin has relied on aid from China, Iran, and North Korea, but some analysts believe that his most consequential support may come from a second Trump term. They argue the Russian leader is biding his time till the 2024 US Presidential election. Meanwhile, President Zelensky is still waiting on answers from current US President Joe Biden on the use of long-range missiles on Russian targets. Can the Ukrainian military hold its ground until the November election, and what does President Zelensky need to secure a victory? The Guardian's Luke Harding joins Ray Suarez to share what he’s seeing on the battlefield. Guest: Luke Harding, foreign correspondent for The Guardian Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.