DHUnplugged Podcast

Bottom Fishing for bargains. Consolidation, Digestion - awaiting the next catalyst. Saudi SWF takes a hit. The Jackson Hole confab is around the corner. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Labubus - Beanie Babies ? - US Debt - wretched - Good fishing this weekend - Chip Trackers Markets - Bottom Fishing - Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst - Saudi SWF takes a hit - Validations - to the MOON - Casual Dining take a hit Weekend Fishing - Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna - 2 bucket list items The CONFAB - August 21 to August 23 - Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy - Powell to speak Friday at 10am - Historically: ---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982) --- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2 --- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets --- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth More Jackson Hole - Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career - Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair - Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk US Debt - The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). - OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit) - US Debt to GDP = 100% - Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly) - 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person LabooooBooo - Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults. - In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze. - The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get. - Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72. Investing - A better Way? - Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing - Next drawing - Wednesday night - The jackpot is a new high for 2025 - he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California. - The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million Energy Needed - Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid. - The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes. - TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S.

China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now Fresh set of IPOs entering the market A NEW Closest to The Pin announcement PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism - Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now - Fresh set of IPOs entering the market - A NEW Closest to The Pin - AND a couple of listener limericks Markets - New Highs and Crypto looks to breakout - Apple best week since 2020 - Alts coming to your 401k - Gold - no longer to be tariff'd - NVDA chips - not safe? Fed Speakers - Some talking 3 rate cuts... End of year? - CPI and PPI this week so we shall see -- Seems like kiss ass tactcs to keep job or get promoted New America Way of Business? - CHINUS - Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the U.S. government a share of revenues from certain chips sold in China, the Financial Times reported, in an unprecedented arrangement with the White House. - In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chip sales, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the FT. - The arrangement comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to reverberate through the global economy, underscoring the White House’s willingness to carve out exceptions as a bargaining tool. (Who is this bargaining with????) Perplexing - Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ - Google doesn’t break out Chrome-specific revenue, analysts estimate its indirect contribution to ad revenue is tens of billions annually. Losing Chrome would weaken Google’s ability to control defaults and gather behavioral data, which are critical for ad targeting - Analysts suggest Chrome could be worth $50 billion or more if Google were forced to sell, given its user base and strategic importance - IPOs - The U.S. IPO market has surged in 2025, with over 210 listings so far—up 84% from last year. Notable performers include: - Figma, Inc. – IPO at $33, now trading at $78.11 (+136.70%) - Ambiq Micro, Inc. – IPO at $24, now $39.47 (+64.46%) - inkhome Holdings Inc. – IPO at $4, now $7.50 (+87.50%) - Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited – IPO at $4, now $35.09 (+777.25%) - Masonglory Limited – IPO at $4, now $12.00 (+200.00%) - Firefly Aerospace Inc. – IPO at $45, now $50.17 (+11.49%) - HeartFlow, Inc. – IPO at $19, now $28.75 (+51.32%) JOBS Report FIX - BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggested that monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology, according to Fox Business interview - Many are worrying about the FIX - is it a fix or will it be fixed...? - More than 2,000 people work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including professional economists and survey takers who contribute to the production of the monthly jobs report - The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has no direct role in collecting, processing, or altering the monthly jobs report data. Here's a breakdown of how the system is designed to prevent manipulation ---The commissioner does not see the jobs data until the Wednesday before its public release on Friday - But, let's discuss - how can the commissioner change the numbers? Intel - 96 hours of fun - Intel stock up as White House going to force TSM to buy into company - Intel stock down as White House recommends firing CEO - Intel Stock up after CEO meeting with Trump in White House Apple - Best week since July 2020 - Apple shares rose 13% this week, its largest weekly gain in more than five years, after CEO Tim Apple appeared with President Donald Trump in the White House on Wed...

Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap) Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX Boeing making moves - unions may strike PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Fed - Standing Pat - Tariffs ON ( with some delays, pauses and delays - India taking Heat - OPEC at it Again Markets -Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild - But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap) - Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX - Boeing making moves - unions may strike The Bend and Snap - That is the markets - any little movement down - snaps right back up (Buy Dip with a Legally Blonde flair) - Monday saw a huge reversal after the VIX hit 21.50 and small caps were down as much as 3% after the July Employment report and lackluster earnings Jobs Report - 4.2% Unemployment Rate - Only added 73,000 in July - Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. - The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. - With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. THEN..... - President Donald Trump on Friday fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the agency reported that job growth in the U.S. had slowed to a near-halt. - “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump posted on Truth Social. GDP - Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period. - Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period. - While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1. - HUGE Number - flurry after some Tariff uncertainty lifted in April OIL - OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia. - The move marks a full and early reversal of OPEC+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand. - In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision. - Eight countries to hike September output by 547,000 bpd - Oil supported by US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Earnings News Coinbase - Coinbase shares fell after gains in the cryptocurrency exchange’s subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes. - Revenue rose slightly to $1.5 billion from $1.45 billion in the same quarter last year, but fell short of analyst estimates. - Coinbase reported that retail trading volume, which is typically more profitable than institutional volume, grew 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, but missed the $48.05 billion expected by analysts survey Reddit - Revenue grew 78% year-over-year in the second quarter and was 17% above consensus estimates, the biggest beat in the company’s short history as a public company. - Reddit said third-quarter revenue will be in the range of $535 million to $545 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $473 million. - Adjusted earnings in the third quarter are projected to be in between $185 million to $195 million,

GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... New term - QUISHING I gotchooo and Say less PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... - New term - QUISHING - I gotchooo and Say less Markets - What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting - MORE ATHs! - Earnings Season Update - Homes - Capital Gains? Cover Art - Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week? - At least TWO glaring issues ... China - another delay/pause? - President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???) EU Deal - Framework of the deal seems done - 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions) - Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up - Some new benefits for US cars into Europe - - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything? Earnings this week of note: - Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025 - Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025 - Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 - Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 --- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weighting Earnings Season Update - Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%. - If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%). - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%. Real Estate - Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024. - According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers. - The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900 - Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June - Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024. Quishing - QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.” - The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.” - There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure. Thoughts? - During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust ...

Back from Vacation - refreshed? Fun with Coldplay! A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing Sugar in the news.... The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Back from Vacation - refreshed? - Fun with Coldplay! - Sugar in the news.... - The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen Markets - Earnings Season is here - about to get some big results this week - Some earnings to discuss - A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing - Markets react to Trump/Fed comments - YUGE deal with Japan Market Update Top to Bottom in - Fed - April (2 Months) Bottom to Recovery of Loss - (2 months) Now overshot and climbing to new ATH DJIA up 4.8% SP500 Up 7.69% NASDAQ up 9% Bitcoin Up 24% Emerging Markets up 24% USD down 10% Gold up 24% Copper up 35% Small Caps up 0.95% Apple DOWN 14% YTD Sectors Staring off: Will the TARIFFS actually go into play on August 1st, 2025??? What to do? - Here we go again... - I heard Adam and Tina coming to Florida next week and I have not heard from them.... -- Now maybe it is nowhere near me - Florida is a big state... (Am I being too sensitive?) - If JCD came to FLA - I would think you would call me.... right? Lessons - Astronomer, the tech company that found itself launched into the public eye after its CEO Andy Byron was spotted on a Jumbotron video at a Coldplay concert last embracing an employee, announced that Byron has been placed on leave. - Astronomer’s cofounder and chief product officer Pete DeJoy is now serving as interim CEO, the company said in a statement Friday night. - “Our leaders are expected to set the standard in both conduct and accountability,” the statement said in part, adding that the company’s board of directors “has initiated a formal investigation into this matter and we will have additional details to share very shortly.” - PEOPLE - think before you do stupid things! NETFLIX Earnings - Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales. - Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. -Stock was sold off after - priced to perfection - Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement. (What happened to constant currency?????) - Off 8% this month, Up 36% YTD Impressive - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, hitting a record high and beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong. - The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer forecast third-quarter revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion — a 38% year-over-year increase and 8% higher from the prior quarter at the midpoint. - - Revenue: 933.80 billion new Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected - - Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billion On the Other Hand - ASML warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter. - ASML’s guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year. - Shares of the firm ended the day 11.4% lower after the report - ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems,

OBBBA written into law! Big week for Coney Island The American Party - Musk taking a shot Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - OBBBA written into law! - Big week for Coney Island - The American Party - Musk taking a shot - Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening - BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS! Markets - ATH before the July 4th break - Jobs numbers - a bit surprising - Tariff threats are back - full court press is on! -- Letters are going out! - NVDA - History in the making THE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before! Earnings Season According to Factset: - During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual. - The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30. - While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%. - Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%. - Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline. --- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed. ELON - On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts." - He can't be President, what are his aspirations here? Joey, Joey, Joey - Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year. - In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodium Tariffs - After OBBBA - good time to start this up again - Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress. - Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate. Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals. - Johnny:I am going to count to three! - Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” - Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. - Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday.. - Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday. OOPS THERE IT IS! - Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't care China and Trade Deal - GE Aerospace has received U.S.

Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - More companies are doing this again.. - Make Showering Great Again! MSGA - - - Twitter Poll - - New ways to buy stocks via tokens - Musk/Trump Feuding Again Markets - Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy - Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector - Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement - ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging) Historically... - Once we know the pattern - we know what usually happens next! Stocks by Month Circle (CRCL) - MONDAY: Circle reverses ground after initially trading lower on JP Morgan initiation at Underweight and $80 price target. - Note that several analysts' targets came in above $200. - Stock down 15% since we mentioned last week (short idea) Good News for Showering? MSGA - As we know, Trump has railed against modern dishwashers, washing machines, light bulbs, showerheads and toilets, claiming that onerous government regulations render them less effective and more expensive. - On April 9, Trump issued an executive order directing certain federal agencies “to incorporate a sunset provision” into a laundry list of energy production regulations, including those covering appliances. A month later, he issued a memorandum, entitled “Rescission of Useless Water Pressure Standards.” - Following that, on May 12, the Department of Energy announced that it was preparing to eliminate or modify 47 federal regulations “that are driving up costs and lowering quality of life for the American people.” - Many of the rules are covered in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), a decades-old law that mandates energy-efficiency and water-conservation standards for home appliances and plumbing fixtures. - Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency said it is planning to eliminate the Energy Star program, a popular voluntary initiative that manufacturers employ to rank their appliances based on energy conservation and cost savings, displayed on familiar blue labeling at retail as comparison-shopping guides. - Twitter Poll Twitter Poll Just in.... - Shares of renewable energy companies are rising after a tax on solar and wind was removed from the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Senate narrowly passed the legislation Tuesday and will now be considered by the House of Representatives. The American Clean Power Association had warned that tax would up to $7 billion to the wind and solar industry’s burden. Next Level? - Robinhood launches stock tokens, reveals Layer 2 blockchain, and expands crypto suite in EU and US with perpetual futures and staking - With tokenized stocks, our European app transitions from being a crypto-only app to an all-in-one investment app powered by crypto. - European customers will have access to 200+ US stock and ETF tokens. Stock token holders will also receive dividend payments directly in their app. Big Beautiful - Clears first hurdle in the Senate (procedural) - Needs to get going on the rest if they want to have it signed into legislation by July 4th - Musk very vocal about the fact it is it is "utterly insane" - Musk says: will “destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” in a post on X. MUSK not happy - Elon does not like the massive spending bill - w...

WAR! (or is it?) Tesla Robotaxi Update Japan's rice problem Drink up! New guidelines coming... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - WAR! (or is it?) - Tesla Robotaxi Update - Japan's rice problem - Drink up! New guidelines coming... Markets - Not phased by Iranian attack - (well planned attack for markets - timing, newsflow and narrative of "successful mission") - A ceasefire now - quick wars! - P/E forward nearing 22 - Leading indicators - dropping - VERY Resilient overall - dips are for buying - NASDAQ 100 closing in on all-time highs - triple top Dropping the F Bomb - 7am CNBC - " Two counties that have been that have been fighting so long and so hard that they do not know what the "F***ck" they are doing" Oil - Drops from high of $78 to $66 - Iran bombing news spikes the price on Sunday night - and then....free fall.... Tesla - Everyone is a flutter about the RoboTaxi test in Austin - Stock moved up 10% on the news Monday -- Everyone knows it is a long haul - but the hope and the promise is something that investors live on - Tesla Robotaxis spotted speeding, making improper turns on first day of service, according to Bloomberg HAMMER - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, in a news conference Sunday, reviewed operational details of Saturday’s “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the well-concealed strikes against nuclear development facilities in Iran that both men called an “incredible and overwhelming success.” - “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” President Donald Trump said Saturday. - Bunker Buster Bombs - lots of them - Was it a success? -- Monday: Iran coordinated the attacks on U.S. base in Qatar and gave officials advance warning to minimize casualties Interesting - Online job listing company CareerBuilder + Monster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday. Leading Indicators - A measure of future U.S. economic activity fell in May for the sixth straight month and triggered a recession signal, held down by consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims and a drop in building permit applications. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline matched the consensus expectation among economists polled by Reuters. - "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal," she said. "The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026." Global Rates and Central Banks - Update World Rates Japan's Rice Problem - Rice prices in Japan more than doubled in May, spiking 101.7% year over year and marking their largest increase in over half a century. - The huge spike follows a 98.4% increase in April, and a rise of 92.1% year over year in March. - Japan’s rice prices have been in the spotlight in recent times, with the government releasing emergency stockpiles to moderate the price of the country’s staple food. - The surge in rice prices comes as Japan’s core inflation rate climbed to 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since January 2023.

A parade of pauses WAR! Middle East at it again Oracle earnings - wow! Tesla robotaxi spotted PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter ** Look At Album Art ** - So bad Warm-Up - More pausing floated - We have a CHYNA deal - kind of - Saying goodbye to Brian Wilson - Tesla - back in buy mode Markets - War! Middle East again (US seems to be helping ?) - Within 2% if ATH and then... - Oracle blows the roof off - UK economy shrinks - bigly ***A NEW Closest to the Pin! Middle East Again - Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early Friday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran’s nuclear program, sparking market fears of a wider conflict. - Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of the Iranian Armed Forces and the country’s most senior military official, was killed during the strikes, alongside the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian state media reported. - The Israeli airstrikes also targeted and killed two of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to Iranian news outlets. - Odd timing? - Markets initially took it better than expected - until Iran stuck back Valuations - As of the most recent update on June 5, 2025, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 21.70. This reflects a decline from 22.44 in the previous quarter and 25.20 one year ago, 10 -year average is about 19 PE Forward Chart Something we discussed on TDI - Presidential Cycles - The U.S. stock market tends to follow a four-year cycle aligned with presidential terms. Historically, the first year of a president’s second term (4 years apart in this case) often mirrors the first year of a new presidency in terms of market behavior—marked by uncertainty, policy re-calibration, and sometimes muted performance - While the first half of the first year can be choppy due to post-election adjustments and early policy moves, the second half—especially Q4—has historically shown stronger performance. This is often attributed to: Stabilizing policy direction after early-year volatility Investor optimism around fiscal planning and budget cycles Seasonal tailwinds like the holiday rally and year-end portfolio rebalancing Presidential Cycle UK Economy- This is why we need to dig further than the headline (more beneath the surface) - The U.K. economy shrank sharply in April as global trade tariffs and domestic tax rises kicked in, data showed Thursday. - The latest monthly growth figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the U.K. economy contracted 0.3% month on month in April, following growth of 0.2% in March. - It was also more than the 0.1% fall economists were expecting. - “After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs,” --- The real culprit: ----- Domestic tax rises have also been blamed for the steep decline in economic activity. British businesses have been confronted with an increase in national insurance contributions and rise in the minimum age from the start of April, while a temporary tax break on property purchases also came to an end in March. - ----The change in the Stamp Duty Land Tax (paid when buying property or land) in April meant there was a decrease of 63.5% in U.K. residential property transactions from the previous month, the ONS noted, with buyers rushing to complete purchases before the tax break ended. US Economy - U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in...

Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair thoughts Excitement over China talks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair - Everyone loves to hate China these days - Trump and Musk breakup - Your DNA may be for sale Markets - Retail shares have wide earnings outcomes - Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement - Excitement over China talks - Lutnik is showing the thumb-up - Who is buying? Powell Replacement - President Trump considering naming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026, according to Bloomberg - Just floating the idea (Trial balloon) at this point - YES! --- Proof - Wait 45 minutes: - White House official tells Reuters that Bloomberg reporting is "false" that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being considered for Fed Chair China - Everyone loves to hate - China’s May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment — worst drop since 2022 - China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank at its fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed Tuesday, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of prohibitive U.S. tariffs. - The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in April. It fell below 50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first time since September last year. China Eco Who is Buying and Selling? - When President Donald Trump set off a global stock market slump in April with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs, small investors across Asia rushed to the US stock market to buy the dip. -Retail investors in South Korea turned net sellers of US equities in May for the first time since before Trump’s election victory, while Japanese accounts became net sellers of US exchange-traded funds, according to official data. - The number of Singapore traders buying US stocks fell by a quarter in May from the previous period. Trump Musk Divorce (Mutual Assured Destruction) - Trump says Elon Musk went ‘CRAZY,’ suggests cutting government contracts for his companies - “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. ”I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!” - Trump wished Elon "very well" in a presser on Monday night - “I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in the social media post. -- Musk fired back with pictures of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein and backed impeachment - “I asked him to leave,” Trump claimed. Musk called that “an obvious lie.” - - - - Does either one of these guys know the truth from a lie? -- Telsa stock dove harder than Trump's ratings post election on the spat BUT BUT - Wasn't the point of hiring Musk and the DOGE to reduce waste, fraud and abuse? - - Lots of positive thoughts on the job he was doing - Now that he found waste in the Big Beautiful Bill - he is banished??? Palantir CEO - CEO Alex Karp said the artificial intelligence arms race between the U.S. and China will culminate in one country coming out on top. - “My general bias on AI is it is dangerous,” Karp told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “There are positive and negative consequences, and either we win or China will win.” - Either way - Palantir wins - right? Select Retail

Set your clock - must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposed Someone wants the Fed Chair job TACO FAFO and more... More muddy AI cover art PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposed - Someone wants the Fed Chair job - TACO FAFO and more... - More muddy AI cover art Markets - YUGE move for markets - Tariffs reinstated by Appeals court - for now - Hope for a spending bill - SPENDING BILLS - Retailers still worried - apparel stores not happy More tariffs - President Donald Trump told U.S. steelworkers on Friday that he will double tariffs on steel imports to 50%. - “We’re going to bring it from 25% to 50%, the tariffs on steel into the United States of America,” Trump said during remarks at U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. The president said the steep tariffs would “further secure the steel industry.” - “At 25%, they can sort of get over that fence,” Trump said. “At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence.” - Shares of mining company Cleveland-Cliffs popped roughly 22% following the announcement, while Steel Dynamics jumped more than 13% and Nucor was up more than 12% Tariffs - Court Strikes them down - something we discussed a bit on the legality of tariffs in the way they were impose to begin with - Appeals court reinstates temporarily - Did you see Howard Lutnik? Like putty in Trump hands, saying how Trump will win, he always wins, he is such a winner, no one can negotiate like Trump - on and one in a press conference. Economic Downtick - The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025. - “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 ... on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said. - It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026 Big Month - NASDAQ up 9.6% for May - S&P 500 up 6% - Some calling it a Bear Market Bounce - Valuations getting toward top end again - Breath is poor again - BIG Names pulling most up - Tech was big driver in May - Best month for S&P 500 since November 2023 Someone Looking to Be Appointed - Kevin Warsh (Brown Nose Warsh) Says Fed Officials Shouldn’t Be ‘Pampered Princes,’ Defends Trump’s Criticism of the Bank - Leading name for the next Fed Chair - defended the president’s right to criticize the central bank, saying the Fed is too big and politically exposed. --- He is showing how political it can be with this kind of populist view Inflation Report - PCE moved to 2.1% on April (lower than expected) - Core inflation also was at 0.1% for the month though it was higher on an annual level at 2.5%. - Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase. - The savings rate surged to 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year. - Food prices fell 0.3% on the month while energy goods and services increased 0.5%. Shelter costs, which has been one of the most stubborn inflation components, increased 0.4%. -- Put all of that together - consumers are pulling back New and Old Acronyms making waves - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) - MAGA (Make America Go Away) - TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) ----It is used to capture the financial market's volatility and chaos that Trump's policymaking process has created Dell Earnings - Dell Technologies reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street expectations, but the company beat on revenue and offered a stronger-than-expect...

Waffles for the Win Workarounds are the thing to avoid onerous tariffs Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Waffles for the Win - Workarounds are the thing - Learning about the First Sale Rule Markets - 42 Days? And counting - Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite - US Steel Deal - WOW! - Fresh steam for speculation - lots of movement Waffling - What are your favorite way to eat waffles? - Friday - 50% on Europe - Blah Blah - 25% on Apple and every smartphone maker that brings in product to USA - Sunday - Delay the Europe tariffs until July 9th - Not sure where we are on Results - Markets swoon on the initial Europe Tariff announcement - Markets (Overnight Futures) Popped higher on the Waffle - Apple will look to eat and see a cut to margins - ---- Surely Apple will promise to build plants in the US and slow role it to get some relief --- Apple recently announced a 250,000-square-foot advanced manufacturing facility in Houston that is expected to begin operations in 2026, indicating a timeline of roughly 1.5 to 2 years from announcement to production start (managed by Foxconn - manufacturing AI Driver Servers China - Not bad - China’s industrial profits rose for a second straight month in April, with their growth improving despite U.S. tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures, thanks to Beijing’s measures aimed at supporting businesses. - Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3% last month compared to a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, accelerating from a 2.6% growth in March. - In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bolstered by stronger earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors. Facts though first: - Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus in China, often called “iPhone City,” spans over 1.4 million square meters (15 million square feet) and employs hundreds of thousands of workers. Approx 80% of Apple's annual iPhone production) -- To replicate this in the U.S., Apple would likely need multiple facilities totaling 10–15 million square feet or more, depending on automation levels and vertical integration. First Sale Rule - Love this!- - The first sale rule has been around since 1988 --- This is why markets/stocks/companies will always win - The “first sale rule” is a concept in U.S. customs law that allows importers to use the lowest cost of a good to calculate duties. - Under U.S. customs law, the first sale rule allows importers to base customs duties on the price of the initial transaction in a multi-tiered supply chain. Example scenario: A Chinese manufacturer sells a t-shirt to a Hong Kong vendor for $5. The Hong Kong vendor resells it to a U.S. retailer for $10. The U.S. retailer sells it to consumers for $40. - Using the first sale rule, the U.S. retailer can declare the $5 price for customs purposes, rather than the $10 resale price. - This approach reduces the duty owed by excluding the middleman’s markup. Asked AI to make easier to understand in an infographic AI Info-graphic Boeing Update - The U.S. Justice Department said Friday that it has reached a deal with Boeing - That will allow the aircraft maker to avoid prosecution over two crashes of its 737 Max planes that killed 346 people. - The non-prosecution agreement would allow Boeing, a major military contractor and top U.S. exporter, to avoid being labeled a felon. - The decision means Boeing won’t face trial as scheduled next month,

The dreaded downgrade. Biden's health in the spotlight. The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - The dreaded downgrade - Biden's health in the spotlight - Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory - China continues to stimulate Markets - Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels - Stocks posting big gains for May - Bitcoin surges past $100k - Our debt load is untenable - great chart to consider The Big Beautiful Bill - The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. - The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program. - The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early. - The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible. - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. - The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less. - The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force. - The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations. - The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government. - The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided. - The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000. USD DEBT Moody's - U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns. - That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1 - The first time since the initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change - Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process - --- maybe they are sending a message -"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. Market reaction - Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced - Bonds - long end moved. --- 30 yr treasuries up over 5% ---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7% - Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futures Bessent reaction -Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level. -"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies." - He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies - Is that right? China - Stimulating - China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth. - The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%. US Steel still in play - Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter. - Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported. - There is a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then T...

- More Deals - So many deals! We are so Amazing with the Deals! - Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened! - Apple making moves - so smart PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - More Deals - We are so Amazing with the Deals! - Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened! - Apple making moves - so smart - Microsoft layoffs - Important information on this if you are one of these Markets - HUGE move as tariffs paused for 90 days on China - Right on cue - most negative sentiment in decades then the squeeze - China - we have something - Maybe Phase 1.5? - Drug companies under pressure - Google update - Lots of headwinds Announcing the Winner of the Micron (MU) CTP Reconciliation BILL - Draft - House Republicans release text of large reconciliation bill which includes extension of 2017 tax cuts for all income levels, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion - The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. - It achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program. - The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early. - The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible. - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. - The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less. - The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force. - Bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations. AI Diffusion Rule Repeal - Wasn't the idea to stop chips from being sold to bad actors? - Good news for NVDA, Intel, AMD etc... - Is this good news? Reality Bites - A quick weekend meeting and all good - 90 day pause - The tariff rate on imported goods to the U.S. from China has been slashed from 145% to 30%, and the tariff rate on imported goods from the U.S. to China has been cut from 125% to 10% - The Art of the ???? ---- So confusing that it is hard to imagine that anyone really knows what is going on at this point. What Do We Do With this: - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to "be in place for the foreseeable future," echoing President Donald Trump's comments from days prior. - They also said no change in tariffs not matter what China does, then maybe a reduction 80% maybe - FAKE PROMISES, Fake News???? China Shipments - China's exports surged in April even as shipments to the U.S. plunged as businesses bore the brunt of prohibitive U.S. tariffs that kicked in last month. - Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier - Imports slumped by 0.2% in April from a year earlier (much less that expected) - China's outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed. How Much? - In April 2025, the U.S. government collected approximately $16 billion in net customs duties. This was a significant increase from the previous year, driven by higher tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports - The budget results indicate that the U.S. collected just over $500 million a day from tariffs in April Income Received Inflation Update - Somehow, not moving (yet) - Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy,

Good ECO/Markets = Trump Bad ECO/Markets - Biden CTP for Micron is underway AI wins a horse race News from Omaha PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Good ECO/Markets = Trump - Bad ECO/Markets - Biden - CTP for Micron is underway - AI wins a horse race - News from Omaha - India/Pakistan - India stikes Markets - Some Earnings Color - S&P breaks it streak this week - KRI +4, +5 (Spearman +100) - Currency interventions happening Interesting Timing - Skechers U.S.A., Inc. the third largest footwear company in the world, today announced that it has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, a global investment firm built on an owner-operator approach to long-term investing. - 3G gets discount as tariffs are softening price - Helped to move the other names in the space higher Heads I Win.... - President Donald Trump took credit for the "good parts" of the economy in an exclusive interview with NBC News airing Sunday, but said that the "bad parts" are former President Joe Biden's economy. - "Ultimately, I take responsibility for everything, but I've only just been here for a little more than three months," Trump said. - "The tariffs have just started kicking in. ... The tariffs are going to make us rich. We're going to be a very rich country," he added. In terms of shortages: - "I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs – that's 11 years old – needs to have 30 dolls," Trump said. - "I'm just saying [children] don't need to have 30 dolls, they can have three, they don't need to have 250 pencils, they can have five," he added. - But, Mira Lago has 58 bedrooms, 33 bathrooms, a 29-foot-long (8.8 m) pietra dura marble-top dining table, 12 fireplaces, and three bomb shelters. ---WHAT? Ford Earnings - Ford Motor beats by $0.14, misses on revs, co suspends FY25 guidance; says business is strong, adjusted EBIT tracking within prior guidance, excluding new tariff-related impacts - Based on what the company knows now, and its expectation of how certain details and changes will be resolved related to tariffs, the company estimates a net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 bln for full-year 2025. Given material near-term risks, co is suspending guidance. Block Earnings (Last week) - Revenue decreased about 3% from $5.96 billion a year earlier. - Gross profit rose 9% to $2.29 billion from $2.09 billion a year earlier. That missed analysts' forecasts of $2.32 billion for the quarter. - Gross payment volume hit $56.8 billion, missing expectations of $58 billion, according to StreetAccount. - Stock plunges Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Palantir Earnings - Palantir Technologies reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY25 revs above consensus - Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 39.4% year/year to $883.9 mln vs the $862.17 mln FactSet Consensus. - U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million. - U.S. government revenue grew 45% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter to $373 million. - Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $934-$938 mln vs. $899.44 mln FactSet Consensus. - Co raises guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of $3.890-$3.902 bln vs. $3.75 bln FactSet Consensus. Raises adjusted income from operations guidance to between $1.711 -- $1.723 billion. - Stock down- probably some profit taking as valuation is a bit stretched Kentucky Derby - AI Wins! - Sovereignty won the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in Louisville,

Oh boy - Supply Chain Concerns again? Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves? China factories shutting down. Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Now Supply Chain Concerns - Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves? - China factories shutting down - Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US - DONE DONE DONE - Lutnick Markets - Capital Raise - Big Boost - ELON - Economics - Big Week - Earnings - The big tech names are on tap - Berkshire annual meeting and earnings this weekend ELON - Elon Musk's xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported. - The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report. - THIS: The artificial intelligence firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion. - "This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI's advanced AI capability and expertise with X's massive reach." - ELON also says that he will be stepping back from DOGE and refocus on TESLA HAHA! FAV STORY! - Tesla reported a $97 million loss due to digital assets, the company’s Bitcoin holdings. In the fourth quarter, there was a gain of $270 million. - Tesla now excludes Bitcoin swings from its non-GAAP results. Tesla also backs out stock-based compensation from its adjusted numbers. - That means the Bitcoin gains were included in the company’s fourth-quarter adjusted results, and the losses weren’t included in the first-quarter adjusted results. - Tesla’s report states that the accounting switch was due to the “adoption of the new crypto assets standard.” Powell Under Fire - Update - All is good - no new discussions is helping keep a bid under markets Are Talks Ongoing at ALL? - China says NO - US says YES - Which is it? DONE DONE DONE - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday teased that the Trump administration has reached its first trade deal, but said it was not fully finalized and declined to name the country involved. - “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their Prime Minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly,” Lutnick told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan. Unusual Winner - With consumer sentiment shrinking and concerns about recession - Travel companies are feeling the pinch - BUT, Travel insurance companies are cashing n on the Cancel for Any Reason Plans - People want to travel but are hesitant as they don't know what will be in the future - therefore buy travel insurance - No pure-play publicly traded stock -- Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection, Nationwide Amazon White House - The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs next to the total price of products on its site. - "This is hostile and political act by Amazon," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing. - "Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" Leavitt asked. - Amazon spokesperson tells Washington Post putting tariff rates next to products "was never under consideration for the main Amazon website. - Says Amazon Haul has considered listing import price duties on certain products. ----- What is our take on this? Big Moves - Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) today announced a long-term collaboration designed to make proven obesity care and treatments more accessible, more affordable, and more connected for millions of Americans.

CEOs Selling stock Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP! Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY USD Weak - what are investors thinking? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Chaos - What next? - Rates - moving in the wrong direction again - USD Weak - what are investors thinking? - A moment for Pope Francis - CEOs - Selling stock Markets - Markets have had it - Done with this nonsense - Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP! - Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY - VIX - back above 30 again (~35) - HyperScalers - not so Hyper... Update One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play) - We have a clear winner from all of the entries and will announce and play at end of the show - I think it is awesome! ECB The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate -- the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance -- is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Powell Under Fire - President Trump says "The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “too late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always too late and wrong.....Too Late should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!" - President Trump says he is "not happy" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell; says he thinks Mr. Powell would leave if he asks him to do so - Is he going to ask - will he leave???????? - How will markets react? --- STOP THE PRESSES - Already did a 180 on that..."No intention of firing Powell" Flurry of Deal Comments Tuesday - As expected, most contradict the other - Confusion as to how long - general happy thoughts - nothing concrete - Markets reacted positively then came off highs Pentagon in Chaos? - White House looking for a new Secretary of Defense, according to NPR - Will he now have a Podcast or go back to Fox and Friends? - Of course the White House press secretary is denying Skinny Minny - Eli Lilly soaring after announcing positive late-stage trial results for its oral weight-loss and diabetes drug, orforglipron, paving the way for a possible launch by the end of 2025 - Novo Nordisk is looking for FDA approval of their pill-form Wegovy weight loss medication Some Eco - April Philadelphia Fed Index -26.4 vs. 10.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior 12.5 - March Building Permits 1.482 mln vs. 1.455 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.459 mln from 1.456 mln - March Housing Starts 1.324 mln vs. 1.418 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.494 mln for 1.501 mln - March Leading Indicators -0.7% vs. -0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.2% from -0.3% IMF - Downgrades US ECO - The US growth forecast for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of uncertainty caused by trade tariffs. - Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF's estimate of 2.7% for the US in January. - The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a "significant slowdown" in global growth, the Fund predicts. NVDA - NVIDIA breaks below $100 as China-based rival Huawei reportedly preps updated AI chip for mass shipment - Last week, NVDA gapped lower after writing down its inventory by around $5.5 bln,

If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning! Earnings season rolls on PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny - President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off - Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning! - Earnings season rolls on - Need a new CTP stock Markets - Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday and Tuesday - Called the near-term bottom - Stock markets slammed - President Trump discussing stocks - Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs - VIX HITS 60 back UNDER 30 ANNOUNCING - One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play) Nice end to the week! - Markets gave some hope to the idea that more exceptions were coming - Across the board, markets gained for the week in highly volatile trade - Last week and the week before saw extreme movements - Bond yields (10 yr) swung between 3.7% and 4.5% (add that to historic records) - At one point equity futures were swinging 1% every 10 minutes in average during height of volatility Wild Ride VIX - Moving lower as things settle down a bit - This is something that everyone should understand - VIX does not stay elevated forever... - VIX moves lower as shocks expire - Great tool for risk management and trading during wild market moves --- Get in and out... Not Inflationary..(wink) - China increased tariffs to 125% - US Increased China tariffs to 145% --- Speaking with colleagues and business owners - they are raising prices as cannot absorb thee levels Tariffs - Are we sick of this discussion yet? - hares of automakers jumped during midday trading Monday following President Donald Trump saying he's looking to "help some of the car companies." --- Auto companies are expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts. - BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers. - Weekend - Some exemptions are being made for semi's, smartphones and other electronics (Shares jumped Monday) Workaround - Apple airlifted $2 bln worth of iPhones from India ahead of tariffs Boeing - Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports. Zero Day - Newsline: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since "liberation day" have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame. - Zero-day-to-expiration options are contracts that expire the same day that they're traded. - The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan. NVDA - News Drop - Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations. - The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.

Tariffs are killing markets. A glimpse int what happens when we take a difference course Markets making some of the wort moves in decades Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions... WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not... More finesse, less sledge hammer? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Markets making some of the worst moves in decades - Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions... - WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not... - More finesse, less sledge hammer? Markets - Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday.. Oversold? - Stock markets slammed - President Trump discussing stocks - Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs - VIX HITS 60! -- A Quick Poem - Green Eggs and Navarro --- One of the gents that responded to Vietnam's desire to have zero tariffs as "not enough" DAX on Monday and other Markets - Opened up down 10% - clawed back a bunch by end of the day - European stocks down 1.5% YTD 2024 - US Stock bearing the brunt of the move - Hong Kong (after being closed Friday) - closed Monday DOWN 13%! - Monday in Japan, Markets halted, futures trading suspended as Nikkei and Topix plunge more than 5% --- Follow up - then up 6% the next day - Monday YTD US Markets: Heads Up - Just in... - Tuesday at 12:30PM - 'White House Press Secretary says 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed it's retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow April 9th' -Markets were trying to right themselves - up big to start the day - then this headline.... - What if - China comes back at 200%? More: - Tuesday afternoon : White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt answers questions on trade at briefing: President Trump not considering delay in tariffs that are due to go into effect tomorrow at 12:01 AM - Where is the negotiation? Seems like a pissing match or bluff with unlimited funds. If you are interested - Rand Paul making all sorts of sense this morning - Trades are win-win. Trade does not mean that one side has to win and one lose. - https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/08/sen-rand-paul-on-trump-tariffs-trade-is-an-integral-part-of-capitalism.html Stupid - Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Sunday it will impose temporary curbs on short-selling of shares to help deal with potential market turmoil from U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs, and will take other steps as needed. - Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement it would limit the number of shares that can be sold short and raise the minimum short-selling margin ratio to 130% from 90%, starting from Monday and lasting until Friday. - We have seen how this plays out in the past. More references to bluffing - "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos," Bessent said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them." VIX - Hits 60 on Monday - then backs off to 45 - Not often we see a run like that. - Still at 45 shows big concerned about near-term volatility. --- S&P 500 top to bottom 7% move today - VIX was at 37 - back to 52 BREAK - IBKR Billionaires losing $$ - Do we feel bad? - Sample of losses on Liberation Day - Zuck lost $18B - Bezos lost $15B What? - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans looking to retire aren’t concerned about day...

Big changes - lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades. Recession and stagflation April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) Bill Gates out with a big prediction The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades - Recession and stagflation - April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) - Bill Gates out with a big prediction - The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) Markets - Corrections happen - Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in? - Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report - Year end price targets - lowering - Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along? OpenAi - OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company. - The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital. - The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors. Google Trends - Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time. - Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs Friday is the UnEmp Report - Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2% - 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls ---- That would till be good numbers. Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on- - Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....) --- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025. - The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time - US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do? - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion. Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics...... - April 25, 1987 - Radio Address.. - " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs. - https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4 Something to Consider... - Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway) -- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation" - - Has anyone considered: What if it does not? - The thought is that it needs to be "fair" Atlanta GDPNOW - Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad - January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9% - Latest April 1 -3.7%